SIRI // SiriusXM Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0000908937 ↗

Communication Services • Broadcasting

$28.67 ▲ +1.35 (+4.94%)

MKT CAP: $9.66B • VOL: 6.76M

52W L $20 52W H $33

ALTMAN Z

1.35 RISK

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

SIRI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

63 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.58

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON SIRI)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 79/100 Z-SCORE: +2.11σ

SIRI Accounting Gap: Net Income (+138.8%) Outpaced OCF (+9%) With +3.3% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+129.8% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+3.3% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) exposes a +129.8% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+138.8%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+9.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +3.3% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

SIRI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.68%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $28.50H $29.15L $28.46C $29.01VOL 7.15M

RES: $35.26SUP: $25.01SMA50: $27.53SMA200: $26.22

SIRI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) exhibits 52.4% gross margins and 6.4% return on invested capital within Communication Services (Broadcasting), balanced against a 8.0x enterprise multiple and 6.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 52.4% gross profitability converts into 17.2% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.4% // GM: 52.4%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -1.6% paired with 12.88% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -1.6% // FCF YLD: 12.88%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.35 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.35 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.0x trailing P/E (11.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.0x // EV/EBITDA: 8.0x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.5% implied move with a 0.58 put/call ratio around $28.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.5% // P/C: 0.58

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Broadcasting require continuous execution to defend 9.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.4% // D/E: 0.57x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.89).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 12.0x

FORWARD P/E 11.2x

EV / EBITDA 8.0x

FCF YIELD 12.88%

GROSS MARGIN 52.4%

OPERATING MARGIN 17.2%

NET MARGIN 9.4%

ROIC % 6.4%

REV GROWTH YOY -1.6%

DILUTED EPS TTM $2.39

DEBT / EQUITY 0.57x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.6

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.89

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SIRIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $26.23

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SIRI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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