ROARABLE // PRO
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US TAPE
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ERIE // Erie Indemnity Company

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000922621 ↗
Financials • Specialty Insurers
$250.79 ▲ +4.40 (+1.79%)
MKT CAP: $11.58B • VOL: 148.1K
ERIE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 73/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
73 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +14.3% vs NI -6.8% • ROIC-WACC +16% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +4.4% • P/E 19.3x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.13 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.04
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did ERIE's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ERIE is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ERIE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.06%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-01O $246.4H $250.8L $246.4C $250.8VOL 148.1K
RES: $284.1SUP: $208.4SMA50: $241.3SMA200: $244.3
$301.3$275.1$248.9$222.7$196.5RES $284.1SUP $208.4$250.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-01
ERIE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 59/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 24.3% return on invested capital within Financials (Specialty Insurers), balanced against a 13.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 17.6% operating margin and 24.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.3% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +7.2% paired with 4.35% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +7.2% // FCF YLD: 4.35%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 20.7x trailing P/E (19.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 20.7x // EV/EBITDA: 13.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $250.79 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Specialty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 13.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 13.8% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 19.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.89).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 20.7x
FORWARD P/E 19.3x
EV / EBITDA 13.3x
FCF YIELD 4.35%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 17.6%
NET MARGIN 13.8%
ROIC % 24.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +7.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $12.11
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.20%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.89
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ERIEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $229.48
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ERIE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>