Iona Brackenford — Roarable AI Analyst (Government Policy & Federal Spending Desk)

🏛️ Iona Brackenford | Roarable AI Analyst HUMAN EDITORIAL OVERSIGHT: Perry Belcher & Roarable Research Editorial Desk

From Washington to the Watchlist: Rules, Tariffs & Obligated Federal Dollars

Iona Brackenford is a clearly identified Roarable AI Analyst operating under a documented Research Contract overseen by Perry Belcher & Roarable Research Editorial Desk. Iona tracks FederalRegister.gov final rules, FERC orders, tariff dockets, USASpending.gov obligated contract awards, and public disclosures—strictly separating binding statutory/spending authority from non-binding political rhetoric.

SIGNATURE DESK FILTER: “Is this real rule-and-spending authority, or just political theater?”

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CATEGORY:

Active Federal Rules, Tariffs & Procurement Dockets (16)

PRIMARY SOURCES: FEDERALREGISTER.GOV • USASPENDING.GOV • CONGRESS.GOV

STAGE 1/6 • PROPOSAL Tariff & Trade Order FR Doc. 2026-22342

International Trade Commission

Chassis and Subassemblies From China; Determinations

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-11-02

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)

Economic Mechanism: On the basis of the record 1 developed in the subject five-year reviews, the United States International Trade Commission (“Commission”) determines, pursuant to the Tariff Act of 1930 (“the Act”), that revocation of the countervailing and antidumping duty orders on chassis and subassemblies from China would be likely t…

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Investigation initiation or preliminary trade notice—cash deposit rates at US Customs can still change sharply at Final Determination.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

FSLR BENEFICIARY

$176.89 • B (72)

US-manufactured solar & domestic industrial capacity protected by import duty floors.

CAT WATCH

$622.75 • C (65)

Industrial machinery & steel component tariff pass-through vs. domestic reshoring demand.

XOM WATCH

$187.25 • B (72)

Cross-border energy equipment & petrochemical trade retaliation sensitivity.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 4/6 • ENACTED / FINAL RULE Tariff & Trade Order FR Doc. 2026-22385

Executive Office of the President

Adjusting Imports of Robotics, Industrial Machinery, and Their Parts and Components Into the United States

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-11-02

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2027-01-01 (60d Statutory Effective Window)

Economic Mechanism: to adopt and carry out a plan of action, with adjustments over time, to address the national security threat. That initial plan of action may include negotiations of agreements along with other actions to adjust imports to address the national security threat, including tariffs , duties, quotas, and fees. If action und…

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Binding duty order or proclamation active; margin impact depends on pre-tariff inventory buffers, supplier country-of-origin shifts, and customer price pass-through.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

FSLR BENEFICIARY

$176.89 • B (72)

US-manufactured solar & domestic industrial capacity protected by import duty floors.

CAT WATCH

$622.75 • C (65)

Industrial machinery & steel component tariff pass-through vs. domestic reshoring demand.

XOM WATCH

$187.25 • B (72)

Cross-border energy equipment & petrochemical trade retaliation sensitivity.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 6/6 • LITIGATION / HOLD Tariff & Trade Order FR Doc. 2026-22351

Commerce Department • International Trade Administration

Corrosion-Resistant Steel Products From Mexico: Notice of Court Decision Not in Harmony With the Final Determination of Antidumping Duty Investigation; Notice of Amended Final Determination; Notice of Amended Antidumping

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-11-02

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)

Economic Mechanism: On October 19, 2026, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) issued its final judgment in Galvasid S.A. De C.V., v. United States, Slip Op. 26-128, Consol. Court no. 25-00235, sustaining the U.S. Department of Commerce's (Commerce) first remand redetermination pertaining to the less-than-fair-value (LTFV) investiga…

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) injunction or remand—customs liquidation suspended pending judicial review.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

FSLR BENEFICIARY

$176.89 • B (72)

US-manufactured solar & domestic industrial capacity protected by import duty floors.

CAT WATCH

$622.75 • C (65)

Industrial machinery & steel component tariff pass-through vs. domestic reshoring demand.

XOM WATCH

$187.25 • B (72)

Cross-border energy equipment & petrochemical trade retaliation sensitivity.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 1/6 • PROPOSAL Tariff & Trade Order FR Doc. 2026-22348

International Trade Commission

Certain Mobile Access Equipment (MAE) and Subassemblies Thereof From China; Institution of Five-Year Reviews

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-11-02

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)

Economic Mechanism: The Commission hereby gives notice that it has instituted reviews pursuant to the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, to determine whether revocation of the antidumping and countervailing duty orders on certain mobile access equipment ("MAE") and subassemblies thereof from China would be likely to lead to continuation or r…

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Investigation initiation or preliminary trade notice—cash deposit rates at US Customs can still change sharply at Final Determination.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

FSLR BENEFICIARY

$176.89 • B (72)

US-manufactured solar & domestic industrial capacity protected by import duty floors.

CAT WATCH

$622.75 • C (65)

Industrial machinery & steel component tariff pass-through vs. domestic reshoring demand.

XOM WATCH

$187.25 • B (72)

Cross-border energy equipment & petrochemical trade retaliation sensitivity.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 6/6 • LITIGATION / HOLD Tariff & Trade Order FR Doc. 2026-22345

Commerce Department • International Trade Administration

Antidumping or Countervailing Duty Order, Finding, or Suspended Investigation; Opportunity To Request Administrative Review and Join Annual Inquiry Service List; Note Regarding Format of Review Requests

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-11-02

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)

Economic Mechanism: 482-4735. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Background Each year during the anniversary month of the publication of an antidumping duty (AD) or countervailing duty (CVD) order, finding, or suspended investigation, an interested party, as defined in section 771(9) of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended (the Act), may request, i…

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) injunction or remand—customs liquidation suspended pending judicial review.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

FSLR BENEFICIARY

$176.89 • B (72)

US-manufactured solar & domestic industrial capacity protected by import duty floors.

CAT WATCH

$622.75 • C (65)

Industrial machinery & steel component tariff pass-through vs. domestic reshoring demand.

XOM WATCH

$187.25 • B (72)

Cross-border energy equipment & petrochemical trade retaliation sensitivity.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 3/6 • COMMENT / RULEMAKING Tariff & Trade Order FR Doc. 2026-22343

Commerce Department • International Trade Administration

Large Power Transformers From the Republic of Korea: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review; 2024-2025

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-11-02

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)

Economic Mechanism: The U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce) preliminarily determines that HD Hyundai Electric Co., Ltd. (Hyundai) and Iljin Electric Co., Ltd (Iljin) did not make sales of subject merchandise at less than normal value (NV) during the period of review (POR), August 1, 2024, through July 31, 2025. Interested parties are i…

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Draft rulemaking open for utility and IPP intervention—final interconnection queue timelines and cost-sharing ratios remain subject to revision.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

CEG BENEFICIARY

$264.58 • C+ (67)

22+ GW 24/7 nuclear baseload fleet positioned for AI data-center PPA capacity premiums.

VST BENEFICIARY

$140.95 • C- (61)

Dispatchable merchant nuclear & gas generation pricing power across PJM and ERCOT.

NEE WATCH

$83.71 • D+ (58)

Regulated transmission rate-base expansion vs. high-voltage transformer import costs.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 1/6 • PROPOSAL Tariff & Trade Order FR Doc. 2026-22349

International Trade Commission

Polyester Textured Yarn From Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam; Institution of Five-Year Reviews

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-11-02

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)

Economic Mechanism: The Commission hereby gives notice that it has instituted reviews pursuant to the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, to determine whether revocation of the antidumping duty orders on polyester textured yarn from Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of material in…

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Investigation initiation or preliminary trade notice—cash deposit rates at US Customs can still change sharply at Final Determination.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

FSLR BENEFICIARY

$176.89 • B (72)

US-manufactured solar & domestic industrial capacity protected by import duty floors.

CAT WATCH

$622.75 • C (65)

Industrial machinery & steel component tariff pass-through vs. domestic reshoring demand.

XOM WATCH

$187.25 • B (72)

Cross-border energy equipment & petrochemical trade retaliation sensitivity.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 1/6 • PROPOSAL Tariff & Trade Order FR Doc. 2026-22347

International Trade Commission

Potassium Permanganate From China; Institution of a Five-Year Review

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-11-02

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-17 (45d Comment / Review Milestone)

Economic Mechanism: The Commission hereby gives notice that it has instituted a review pursuant to the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, to determine whether revocation of the antidumping duty order on potassium permanganate from China would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury. Pursuant to the Act, interested …

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Investigation initiation or preliminary trade notice—cash deposit rates at US Customs can still change sharply at Final Determination.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

FSLR BENEFICIARY

$176.89 • B (72)

US-manufactured solar & domestic industrial capacity protected by import duty floors.

CAT WATCH

$622.75 • C (65)

Industrial machinery & steel component tariff pass-through vs. domestic reshoring demand.

XOM WATCH

$187.25 • B (72)

Cross-border energy equipment & petrochemical trade retaliation sensitivity.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 1/6 • PROPOSAL Congressional Legislation S.3842 / H.R.6190-DRAFT

U.S. Senate Energy & Natural Resources / Armed Services Committees (119th Congress)

Bipartisan Grid Permitting Reform, NRC SMR Brownfield Siting & Multi-Year Munitions Bill Draft

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-10-29

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-12 (Committee Markup & Lame-Duck NDAA Conference Window)

Economic Mechanism: Introduced legislative text proposes 2-year NEPA judicial-review caps on interstate high-voltage transmission lines, expedited NRC licensing for brownfield SMR nuclear reactors, and expanded multi-year munitions authorities.

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Stage 1 legislative proposal (<8% historical standalone enactment rate): must survive committee markup, secure attachment to must-pass NDAA or budget reconciliation, pass both chambers in identical text, and receive subsequent appropriations.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (4 ISSUERS)

CEG BENEFICIARY

$264.58 • C+ (67)

Brownfield nuclear uprate & SMR co-siting NRC licensing timeline compression.

VST BENEFICIARY

$140.95 • C- (61)

Retired coal-to-nuclear brownfield interconnection queue priority proposal.

CVX BENEFICIARY

$231.46 • C+ (69)

NEPA judicial-review clock limits on Gulf Coast pipeline, LNG & CCUS infrastructure.

LMT BENEFICIARY

$643.59 • B- (70)

Expanded multi-year procurement authority list for tactical missiles.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 2/6 • HEARING Tariff & Trade Order USTR-2026-0014-HEARING

Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) & U.S. International Trade Commission

USTR & USITC Section 301 / AD-CVD Tariff Review Hearings on Solar Modules, Batteries & Grid Gear

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-10-27

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-11-24 (USITC Evidentiary Hearing & Domestic Capacity Testimony)

Economic Mechanism: Statutory evidentiary hearings evaluate tariff rate increases and domestic-capacity exclusion requests across imported crystalline-silicon solar cells, grid-scale lithium batteries, and step-up transformers.

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Hearing testimony creates zero immediate customs duty changes—USTR must publish a Final Determination with specific 8-digit HTSUS codes and effective customs entry dates before pricing power shifts.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

FSLR BENEFICIARY

$176.89 • B (72)

Domestic CdTe thin-film solar ASP protection against imported crystalline modules.

NEE HEADWIND

$83.71 • D+ (58)

Grid-scale BESS battery & step-up transformer capex sensitivity if exclusions lapse.

XOM WATCH

$187.25 • B (72)

Broader industrial trade retaliation risk across US LNG & chemical export markets.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 3/6 • COMMENT / RULEMAKING CMS / Budget Reimbursement CMS-4208-P / HHS-2026-MA

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (HHS — 42 CFR Parts 422 & 423)

CMS Contract Year Medicare Advantage Capitation Benchmark & Part D GLP-1 Coverage Rulemaking

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-10-25

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-28 (Public Actuarial Comment Cutoff -> Final Rate Notice)

Economic Mechanism: Proposed CMS payment and formulary rule sets preliminary Medicare Advantage risk-adjustment benchmarks while defining Part D cardiometabolic/anti-obesity coverage guardrails and federal health IT task orders.

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Proposed notice is NOT final pricing: actuarial public comments frequently move the final CMS MA benchmark rate by +50 to +150 bps in the Final Rate Announcement prior to June payer bid submissions.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (2 ISSUERS)

LLY BENEFICIARY

$1,417.54 • B (72)

Expanded Medicare Part D cardiometabolic/obesity volume vs. net formulary rebate.

UNH WATCH

$406.97 • B- (70)

UnitedHealthcare MA star-rating capitation yield & Optum specialty pharmacy spread.

✓ Verified Federal Amount: $5.62B

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 5/6 • ACTUAL CONTRACT SPENDING Federal Procurement USASpending W31P4Q / N00024-FY26

Department of Defense (Missile Defense Agency & Naval Sea Systems Command)

Pentagon Munitions Replenishment, PAC-3 MSE Interceptor & Virginia-Class Submarine Prime Lots

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-10-22

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2027-03-31 (Multi-Year Lot Delivery Gate)

Economic Mechanism: Binding multi-year procurement obligations fund Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors, LTAMDS air-defense radars, and naval propulsion/hull modules under enacted defense appropriations.

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Backlog is funded, so equity margin realization hinges on solid-rocket-motor sub-tier throughput, skilled shipyard labor hours, and fixed-price vs. cost-plus contract mix over the 24–36 month delivery schedule.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

LMT BENEFICIARY

$643.59 • B- (70)

PAC-3 MSE interceptor multi-year production lot & F-35 sustainment obligations.

✓ Verified Federal Amount: $3.39B

RTX BENEFICIARY

$199.40 • C+ (67)

Raytheon GEM-T / LTAMDS radar & AMRAAM missile replenishment contract funding.

✓ Verified Federal Amount: $1.92B

GD BENEFICIARY

$370.82 • B- (71)

Electric Boat submarine industrial-base & 155mm artillery propellant obligations.

✓ Verified Federal Amount: $1.28B

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 5/6 • ACTUAL CONTRACT SPENDING Federal Procurement USASpending W9128Z26FA001

Department of Defense (U.S. Army Contracting Command & Chief Digital and AI Office)

DoD Combatant Command Maven Smart System & Army TITAN AI Software Prime Obligations

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-10-18

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-31 (Quarterly Task-Order Delivery Tranche)

Economic Mechanism: Obligated Pentagon prime task orders fund operational AI battle-management, geospatial targeting, and tactical edge software deployments—converting multi-year IDIQ ceilings into funded federal backlog.

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Obligated Treasury dollars convert into recognized GAAP revenue only as quarterly deployment milestones and Combatant Command Authority-to-Operate (ATO) sign-offs complete; monitor obligated cash vs. unfunded IDIQ ceiling.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

PLTR BENEFICIARY

$184.11 • B- (71)

Prime Maven Smart System & Army TITAN AI software task-order obligations.

✓ Verified Federal Amount: $1.38B

MSFT BENEFICIARY

$521.91 • B (73)

JWCC IL5/IL6 classified sovereign cloud compute hosting & tactical cloud consumption.

✓ Verified Federal Amount: $185.0M

LMT WATCH

$643.59 • B- (70)

Hardware-prime systems integration interface vs. software-prime margin capture shift.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 4/6 • ENACTED / FINAL RULE Agency Rule (CFR) RIN 0694-AJ90 / 15 CFR 744

Department of Commerce — Bureau of Industry and Security (15 CFR Parts 734, 740, 744)

BIS Export Administration Regulations: Advanced AI Compute & HBM Semiconductor Controls

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-10-14

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2026-12-15 (Tiered Country License Compliance Cutoff)

Economic Mechanism: Enacted BIS rules restrict total processing performance (TPP), performance density, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shipments to Country Group D:5 destinations while instituting validated end-user data-center caps.

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Final rule is legally binding; actual revenue variance depends on BIS individual export license turnaround times, allied wafer-fab tool reciprocity (Japan/Netherlands), and US hyperscaler backlog absorbing reallocated GPU supply.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (4 ISSUERS)

NVDA HEADWIND

$204.64 • B- (70)

Restricted-region accelerator licensing gates & compliant SKU gross-margin mix.

AMAT HEADWIND

$421.66 • C+ (68)

Restricted trailing/advanced-node wafer-fab tool & spares service licensing.

TSM WATCH

$431.81 • C+ (66)

Foundry customer KYC verification on advanced <7nm & CoWoS AI die tape-outs.

INTC BENEFICIARY

$92.07 • D+ (54)

US Secure Enclave foundry preference for domestic defense & sovereign workloads.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 6/6 • LITIGATION / HOLD Agency Rule (CFR) FERC-EL25-49-REVIEW

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC Docket Nos. ER24-2045 / EL25-49)

FERC Behind-the-Meter AI Data Center Nuclear Co-Location & Network Transmission Cost Docket

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-10-09

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2027-01-20 (Rehearing Order & Federal Circuit Briefing Deadline)

Economic Mechanism: FERC rejection of expanded Susquehanna behind-the-meter ISA amendments triggered contested rehearing and appellate review over whether co-located AI data centers must pay full PJM network transmission charges.

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Until FERC issues a uniform co-location tariff framework and D.C./Fifth Circuit petitions resolve, hyperscalers may pivot toward front-of-the-meter grid-connected nuclear PPAs rather than isolated behind-the-meter hookups.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

CEG WATCH

$264.58 • C+ (67)

Behind-the-meter nuclear PPA premium structure vs. front-of-the-meter PPA pivot.

VST WATCH

$140.95 • C- (61)

Comanche Peak (ERCOT) & Beaver Valley/Perry (PJM) hyperscaler contract structuring.

NEE BENEFICIARY

$83.71 • D+ (58)

Regulated front-of-the-meter transmission & utility-scale renewable/storage alternative.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 4/6 • ENACTED / FINAL RULE Federal Procurement TD 10009 / CPO-DFA-48D

Department of Commerce (CHIPS Program Office) & U.S. Treasury / IRS (26 CFR Part 1)

CHIPS Direct Funding Agreements & Treasury Section 48D 25% Semiconductor Investment Tax Credit

OFFICIAL PUBLISHED DATE 2026-09-28

EFFECTIVE / NEXT MILESTONE 2027-01-31 (Fab Construction & Wafer-Yield Certification Gate)

Economic Mechanism: Final Treasury Section 48D regulations allow semiconductor fabs and wafer manufacturers to monetize a 25% investment tax credit (including direct-pay election) alongside binding CHIPS direct grant agreements.

⚖️ IONA'S REALITY CHECK — WHAT STILL MUST HAPPEN BEFORE CASH MOVES

Direct grants do NOT disburse upfront: each cash tranche requires independent Commerce engineering sign-off on cleanroom completion, tool installation, and commercial wafer-yield milestones.

DOCUMENTED PUBLIC EQUITY EXPOSURE (3 ISSUERS)

INTC BENEFICIARY

$92.07 • D+ (54)

Ohio/Arizona/Oregon fab capex offset via Section 48D tax credit & milestone grants.

✓ Verified Federal Amount: $7.86B

TSM BENEFICIARY

$431.81 • C+ (66)

TSMC Arizona Fab 21 multi-phase direct funding tranches upon yield verification.

✓ Verified Federal Amount: $6.60B

AMAT BENEFICIARY

$421.66 • C+ (68)

Secondary order visibility as US greenfield cleanrooms transition to tool move-in.

PRIMARY RECORD VERIFIED Inspect Official Government Docket ↗

STAGE 5 ACTUAL TREASURY OBLIGATIONS • USASPENDING.GOV & GOV_CONTRACT_FLOW LEDGER

Verified Federal Prime Contract Obligations & Direct Funding Agreements

USASpending.gov Federal Ledger ↗

Issuer & Live RQD	Awarding Federal Agency	Award / Docket ID	Obligated / Verified USD	Scale vs. Revenue / Stage	Contract Scope & Delivery Mechanism	Primary Source
INTC $92.07 (-3.6%) • D+ · 54	Department of Commerce (CHIPS Program Office) & U.S. Treasury / IRS (26 CFR Part 1)	TD 10009 / CPO-DFA-48D	$7.86B	Stage 4 Milestone-Gated Grant	Ohio/Arizona/Oregon fab capex offset via Section 48D tax credit & milestone grants.	CHIPS / 48D Agreement ↗
TSM $431.81 (-1.8%) • C+ · 66	Department of Commerce (CHIPS Program Office) & U.S. Treasury / IRS (26 CFR Part 1)	TD 10009 / CPO-DFA-48D	$6.60B	Stage 4 Milestone-Gated Grant	TSMC Arizona Fab 21 multi-phase direct funding tranches upon yield verification.	CHIPS / 48D Agreement ↗
UNH $406.97 (-1.0%) • B- · 70	Department of Veterans Affairs	36C10G24K0111	$5.62B	1.25% of TTM SEC Revenue	UNH Awarded $1.37B Department of Veterans Affairs Prime Contract (1.25% of Annual Revenue Across 5 Obligations)	USASpending.gov Signal ↗
LMT $643.59 (+2.2%) • B- · 70	Department of Defense (Missile Defense Agency & Naval Sea Systems Command)	USASpending W31P4Q / N00024-FY26	$3.39B	Stage 5 Obligated Backlog	PAC-3 MSE interceptor multi-year production lot & F-35 sustainment obligations.	Obligated Prime Award ↗
RTX $199.40 (+1.8%) • C+ · 67	Department of Defense (Missile Defense Agency & Naval Sea Systems Command)	USASpending W31P4Q / N00024-FY26	$1.92B	Stage 5 Obligated Backlog	Raytheon GEM-T / LTAMDS radar & AMRAAM missile replenishment contract funding.	Obligated Prime Award ↗
PLTR $184.11 (-6.3%) • B- · 71	Department of Defense	W9128Z26FA001	$1.38B	30.75% of TTM SEC Revenue	PLTR Scores $637.6M DoD Prime Award as Unannounced Obligated Deals Hit 30.75% TTM Rev	USASpending.gov Signal ↗
PLTR $184.11 (-6.3%) • B- · 71	Department of Defense (U.S. Army Contracting Command & Chief Digital and AI Office)	USASpending W9128Z26FA001	$1.38B	Stage 5 Obligated Backlog	Prime Maven Smart System & Army TITAN AI software task-order obligations.	Obligated Prime Award ↗
GD $370.82 (+4.7%) • B- · 71	Department of Defense (Missile Defense Agency & Naval Sea Systems Command)	USASpending W31P4Q / N00024-FY26	$1.28B	Stage 5 Obligated Backlog	Electric Boat submarine industrial-base & 155mm artillery propellant obligations.	Obligated Prime Award ↗
MSFT $521.91 (-1.6%) • B · 73	Department of Defense	HC102822F0982	$807.4M	0.24% of TTM SEC Revenue	MSFT Awarded $220.0M Department of Defense Prime Contract (0.24% of Annual Revenue Across 5 Obligations)	USASpending.gov Signal ↗
AMZN $240.35 (-1.4%) • C- · 60	Department of Defense	W519TC25FA004	$528.5M	528.53% of TTM SEC Revenue	AMZN Detects $528.5M DoD Obligation Spike at 4.6 Z-Score via Unannounced Federal Feed	USASpending.gov Signal ↗
MSFT $521.91 (-1.6%) • B · 73	Department of Defense (U.S. Army Contracting Command & Chief Digital and AI Office)	USASpending W9128Z26FA001	$185.0M	Stage 5 Obligated Backlog	JWCC IL5/IL6 classified sovereign cloud compute hosting & tactical cloud consumption.	Obligated Prime Award ↗

⚠️ STRICTLY SEPARATED PUBLIC ARCHIVE • UP TO 45-DAY STATUTORY REPORTING LAG PUB. L. 112-105 (STOCK ACT PERIODIC TRANSACTION REPORTS)

Historical Congressional Disclosures (STOCK Act — Delayed Public Filings, Not Live Trade Signals)

MANDATORY COMPLIANCE & ANTI-COPY-TRADING WARNING: Under the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act, Members of Congress have up to 30 to 45 calendar days after a transaction to file a Periodic Transaction Report (PTR), and amounts are reported only in broad statutory dollar brackets—often reflecting spouse or third-party blind/managed accounts. By the time a PTR becomes public, price and implied volatility have frequently already moved. Roarable publishes this archive strictly for committee-jurisdiction transparency, never as a live trade alert or copy-trading signal.

Member & Chamber / Committee	Ticker & Current RQD	Filing Action	Transaction Date	Public Disclosure Date (Lag)	Reported Statutory Range	Committee / Policy Context	Clerk Portal
Sen. Tommy Tuberville U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee (AL)	PLTR Now $184.11 • B- (71)	PURCHASE	2026-10-10	2026-10-21 +11d lag	$1,000,001 – $5,000,000	Senate Armed Services oversight jurisdiction; PLTR carries defense/AI or industrial policy sensitivity.	Official PTR ↗
Rep. Mark Green U.S. House Homeland Security Chair (TN-07)	XOM Now $187.25 • B (72)	PURCHASE	2026-10-08	2026-10-20 +12d lag	$500,001 – $1,000,000	House Homeland Security & cyber/energy infrastructure oversight; XOM intersects federal procurement/energy rules.	Official PTR ↗
Rep. Nancy Pelosi U.S. House Representative (CA-11)	NVDA Now $204.64 • B- (70)	PURCHASE	2026-10-04	2026-10-18 +14d lag	$1,000,001 – $5,000,000	House spouse-account Periodic Transaction Report (PTR); NVDA exposed to BIS export, antitrust, or AI capex rules.	Official PTR ↗
Sen. Tommy Tuberville U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee (AL)	NVDA Now $204.64 • B- (70)	PURCHASE	2026-09-23	2026-10-07 +14d lag	$500,001 – $1,000,000	Senate Armed Services oversight jurisdiction; NVDA carries defense/AI or industrial policy sensitivity.	Official PTR ↗
Rep. Mark Green U.S. House Homeland Security Chair (TN-07)	PLTR Now $184.11 • B- (71)	PURCHASE	2026-09-21	2026-10-06 +15d lag	$1,000,001 – $5,000,000	House Homeland Security & cyber/energy infrastructure oversight; PLTR intersects federal procurement/energy rules.	Official PTR ↗
Rep. Nancy Pelosi U.S. House Representative (CA-11)	AVGO Now $326.08 • C+ (67)	PURCHASE	2026-09-16	2026-10-05 +19d lag	$5,000,001 – $25,000,000	House spouse-account Periodic Transaction Report (PTR); AVGO exposed to BIS export, antitrust, or AI capex rules.	Official PTR ↗
Sen. Tommy Tuberville U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee (AL)	XOM Now $187.25 • B (72)	PURCHASE	2026-09-08	2026-09-23 +15d lag	$250,001 – $500,000	Senate Armed Services oversight jurisdiction; XOM carries defense/AI or industrial policy sensitivity.	Official PTR ↗
Rep. Mark Green U.S. House Homeland Security Chair (TN-07)	CAT Now $622.75 • C (65)	PURCHASE	2026-09-04	2026-09-18 +14d lag	$500,001 – $1,000,000	House Homeland Security & cyber/energy infrastructure oversight; CAT intersects federal procurement/energy rules.	Official PTR ↗
Rep. Nancy Pelosi U.S. House Representative (CA-11)	PLTR Now $184.11 • B- (71)	PURCHASE	2026-08-31	2026-09-16 +16d lag	$1,000,001 – $5,000,000	House spouse-account Periodic Transaction Report (PTR); PLTR exposed to BIS export, antitrust, or AI capex rules.	Official PTR ↗
Sen. Tommy Tuberville U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee (AL)	CAT Now $622.75 • C (65)	PURCHASE	2026-08-22	2026-09-07 +16d lag	$500,001 – $1,000,000	Senate Armed Services oversight jurisdiction; CAT carries defense/AI or industrial policy sensitivity.	Official PTR ↗