TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$178.77 +2.81% NYSE • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot

TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) receives a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID warning (66/100 RQD Confidence). Our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing real operating cash flow (+100.6% (NI vs OCF)) while unpaid customer invoices grew—a classic sign to step aside until cash flow catches up.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $33.84B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510066
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D
Cash (16)Whales (10)SEC (8)Macro (15)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$238 Bull$185 Base$144 Bear
🔴 SUNDAY NIGHT PREP • 7:00 PM ET
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:61% Call Buyers ($3.7M)
39% PutsMax Pain: $175.00
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
5430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.70>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE15% OF RANGE
L: $170$178.77H: $227
1. Money & Cash Health● RED FLAG
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Warning: Paper profits outpaced real cash collected while unpaid invoices rose—classic earnings quality red flag.

Factor Grade: DRQD 16 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 22 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Our SEC fine-print scanner flagged elevated accounting or executive-hedging risk combined with interest-rate headwinds.

Factor Grade: DRQD 28 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on TKO

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (80)

9.9% ROIC with 41.0% gross margin and 3.17% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (36)

Flagged cash-conversion divergence or elevated filing risk disclosures.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (62)

Put/Call 0.64x with 22/40 institutional & insider flow.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TKO
  • ✓Strong cash generator (41% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Headline earnings grew much faster than real operating cash flow—watch out for profit revisions.
  • !Priced at 62x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
🔴 SUNDAY NIGHT PREP • 7:00 PM ETHosted Live by Perry Belcher & Guest Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: How Pros Profit When Overhyped Stocks Crack (Featuring TKO)

  • ✓Live walkthrough of TKO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge setups institutions use when 10-year yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes instant 24/7 email alert whenever any of your stocks flip to Red
RQD INSIDER CLUB UPGRADE$49/YEAR
Want Plain-English AI Custom Indicators, Daily Pro Trader Video Clips & SMS Crash Alerts?
TKO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.91%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $179.9H $182.0L $179.0C $180.7VOL 1.00M
RES: $184.3SUP: $168.5SMA50: $182.8SMA200: $193.3
$222.3$208.1$194.0$179.9$165.8RES $184.3SUP $168.5$180.72026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TKO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
42.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TKO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TKO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TKO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

TKO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TKO stock right now?

TKO Group Holdings Inc. (TKO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. Accounting Warning: Paper earnings outpaced operating cash flow (+100.6% (NI vs OCF)) as receivables rose.

What is TKO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TKO's 12-month base price target is $185.21 (range $144.46 to $238.29), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.