MRCY // Mercury Systems Inc

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001049521 ↗

Technology • Electrical Products

$81.80 ▲ +3.22 (+4.10%)

MKT CAP: $4.98B • VOL: 775.8K

52W L $65 52W H $128

ALTMAN Z

4.26 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

MRCY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

64 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.56

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

17 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON MRCY)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 89/100 Z-SCORE: +2.99σ

MRCY Accounting Gap: Net Income (+100%) Outpaced OCF (-100%) With +0% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+200.0% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+0.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) exposes a +200.0% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+100.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-100.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +0.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

MRCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.74%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $79.73H $81.58L $76.22C $77.54VOL 543.6K

RES: $92.29SUP: $66.68SMA50: $81.97SMA200: $91.63

MRCY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 75/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) exhibits 62.0% gross margins and 14.9% return on invested capital within Technology (Electrical Products), balanced against a 14.6x enterprise multiple and 8.0% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 62.0% gross profitability converts into 21.1% operating margin and 14.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.9% // GM: 62.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +52.8% paired with 3.99% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +52.8% // FCF YLD: 3.99%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.26 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.26 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.7x trailing P/E (18.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.7x // EV/EBITDA: 14.6x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±8.0% implied move with a 0.56 put/call ratio around $80.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±8.0% // P/C: 0.56

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electrical Products require continuous execution to defend 16.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.4% // D/E: 0.30x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.33).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 21.7x

FORWARD P/E 18.2x

EV / EBITDA 14.6x

FCF YIELD 3.99%

GROSS MARGIN 62.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 21.1%

NET MARGIN 16.4%

ROIC % 14.9%

REV GROWTH YOY +52.8%

DILUTED EPS TTM $3.77

DEBT / EQUITY 0.30x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.4

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.33

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MRCYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $74.85

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MRCY & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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