HUBS // HubSpot Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001404655 ↗

Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software

$239.57 ▼ -9.40 (-3.78%)

MKT CAP: $11.95B • VOL: 830.7K

52W L $170 52W H $498

ALTMAN Z

4.86 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

HUBS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

64 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

13 / 20

SOLID

FCF +26.2% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -8.9% • Z 4.86

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did HUBS's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever HUBS is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON HUBS)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 88/100 Z-SCORE: +2.89σ

HUBS Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+27.1%) With +-45.3% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+192.9% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-45.3% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on HubSpot Inc. (HUBS) exposes a +192.9% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+27.1%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -45.3% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

HUBS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.91%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $241.5H $244.0L $232.5C $234.9VOL 966.9K

RES: $272.3SUP: $197.6SMA50: $234.6SMA200: $231.6

HUBS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

HubSpot Inc. (HUBS) exhibits 83.8% gross margins and 0.3% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 95.0x enterprise multiple and 7.4% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 83.8% gross profitability converts into 0.2% operating margin and 0.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 0.3% // GM: 83.8%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +19.2% paired with 5.92% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +19.2% // FCF YLD: 5.92%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.86 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.86 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 185.0x trailing P/E (140.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 185.0x // EV/EBITDA: 95.0x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.4% implied move with a 0.98 put/call ratio around $235.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.4% // P/C: 0.98

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 1.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.5% // D/E: 0.36x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 140.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.14).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 185.0x

FORWARD P/E 140.0x

EV / EBITDA 95.0x

FCF YIELD 5.92%

GROSS MARGIN 83.8%

OPERATING MARGIN 0.2%

NET MARGIN 1.5%

ROIC % 0.3%

REV GROWTH YOY +19.2%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.92

DEBT / EQUITY 0.36x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 48.2

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.14

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // HUBSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $219.21

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for HUBS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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