DUOL // Duolingo Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001562088 ↗

Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software

$136.39 ▲ +1.18 (+0.87%)

MKT CAP: $6.38B • VOL: 729.3K

52W L $88 52W H $280

ALTMAN Z

7.42 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

8 / 9

DUOL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 72/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE B

RQD CONFIDENCE

72 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

17 / 20

STRONG

FCF +35.2% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +8% • Z 7.42

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

17 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did DUOL's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever DUOL is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON DUOL)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 87/100 Z-SCORE: +2.77σ

DUOL Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+35.8%) With +-12% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+184.2% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-12.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) exposes a +184.2% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+35.8%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -12.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

DUOL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.52%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $135.2H $135.4L $130.7C $131.6VOL 776.8K

RES: $190.9SUP: $124.7SMA50: $145.2SMA200: $123.9

DUOL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 71/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) exhibits 72.2% gross margins and 18.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 37.2x enterprise multiple and 7.9% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 72.2% gross profitability converts into 13.1% operating margin and 18.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 18.4% // GM: 72.2%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +38.7% paired with 5.79% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +38.7% // FCF YLD: 5.79%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 7.42 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 7.42 // F-SCORE: 8/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 15.4x trailing P/E (12.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 15.4x // EV/EBITDA: 37.2x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.9% implied move with a 0.84 put/call ratio around $134.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.9% // P/C: 0.84

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 39.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 39.9% // D/E: 0.20x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.30).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 15.4x

FORWARD P/E 12.9x

EV / EBITDA 37.2x

FCF YIELD 5.79%

GROSS MARGIN 72.2%

OPERATING MARGIN 13.1%

NET MARGIN 39.9%

ROIC % 18.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +38.7%

DILUTED EPS TTM $8.85

DEBT / EQUITY 0.20x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 39.4

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.30

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // DUOLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $124.80

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for DUOL & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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