BBAI // BigBear.ai Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001836981 ↗

Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software

$2.67 ▲ +0.21 (+8.54%)

MKT CAP: $1.29B • VOL: 27.25M

52W L $2 52W H $7

ALTMAN Z

0.92 RISK

PIOTROSKI

4 / 9

BBAI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

56 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.43

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

17 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON BBAI)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +5.57σ

BBAI Accrual Mirage: Cash Conversion Gap +10.7% as Receivables Bloat +219.3% vs Rev

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+10.7% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+219.3% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

Multi-feed EDGAR XBRL forensic mapping exposes a severe cash conversion gap of +10.7% driven by net income growth of 0.7% diverging against a -10.1% contraction in operating cash flow. This operational decoupling is exacerbated by an extreme receivables and working capital bloat of +219.3% relative to revenue, signaling elevated risk of aggressive revenue recognition and uncollected billings at a z-score of 5.57. While 60-day C-suite Form 4 sales register 0 open-mkt dumps ($0 USD), the severe structural deterioration in cash generation warrants defensive institutional positioning.

BBAI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.67%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $2.54H $2.65L $2.52C $2.60VOL 26.03M

RES: $2.45SUP: $1.89SMA50: $2.67SMA200: $3.61

BBAI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) exhibits 22.3% gross margins and -27.5% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 7.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 22.3% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -27.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -27.5% // GM: 22.3%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -19.3% paired with -3.30% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -19.3% // FCF YLD: -3.30%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.92 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.92 // F-SCORE: 4/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.6% implied move with a 0.43 put/call ratio around $3.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.6% // P/C: 0.43

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.15x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.20).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E —

FORWARD P/E 23.0x

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD -3.30%

GROSS MARGIN 22.3%

OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%

NET MARGIN -60.0%

ROIC % -27.5%

REV GROWTH YOY -19.3%

DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.61

DEBT / EQUITY 0.15x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.3

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.20

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BBAIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $2.44

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for BBAI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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