UGI // UGI Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000884614 ↗

Energy • Natural Gas Distribution

$38.56 ▲ +0.12 (+0.31%)

MKT CAP: $8.27B • VOL: 876.8K

52W L $32 52W H $41

ALTMAN Z

1.41 RISK

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

UGI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

59 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.89

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON UGI)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 81/100 Z-SCORE: +2.30σ

UGI Accounting Gap: Net Income (+152%) Outpaced OCF (+3.8%) With +0.9% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+148.2% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+0.9% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on UGI Corporation (UGI) exposes a +148.2% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+152.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+3.8%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +0.9% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

UGI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.15%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $38.99H $38.99L $38.44C $38.67VOL 1.20M

RES: $39.36SUP: $36.18SMA50: $37.73SMA200: $36.68

UGI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

UGI Corporation (UGI) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 9.4% return on invested capital within Energy (Natural Gas Distribution), balanced against a 6.9x enterprise multiple and 6.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 15.5% operating margin and 9.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.4% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.4% paired with 4.72% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.4% // FCF YLD: 4.72%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.41 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.41 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.2x trailing P/E (11.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.2x // EV/EBITDA: 6.9x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.5% implied move with a 0.89 put/call ratio around $38.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.5% // P/C: 0.89

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Natural Gas Distribution require continuous execution to defend 9.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.5% // D/E: 0.91x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.89).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 12.2x

FORWARD P/E 11.3x

EV / EBITDA 6.9x

FCF YIELD 4.72%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 15.5%

NET MARGIN 9.5%

ROIC % 9.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +1.4%

DILUTED EPS TTM $3.16

DEBT / EQUITY 0.91x

DIVIDEND YIELD 3.89%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.0

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.89

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UGIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $35.28

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for UGI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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