SMG // Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The)

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000825542 ↗

Materials • Agricultural Chemicals

$61.87 ▲ +2.21 (+3.70%)

MKT CAP: $3.60B • VOL: 1.18M

52W L $48 52W H $75

ALTMAN Z

2.32 GREY

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

SMG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

65 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

12 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF -53.1% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +8.5% • Z 2.32

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

15 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did SMG's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever SMG is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON SMG)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.90σ

SMG Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (-44.4%) With +1.5% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+264.4% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+1.5% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) (SMG) exposes a +264.4% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-44.4%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +1.5% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

SMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.73%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $62.43H $62.90L $61.67C $62.24VOL 1.46M

RES: $55.62SUP: $41.37SMA50: $55.30SMA200: $61.87

SMG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) (SMG) exhibits 30.6% gross margins and 16.3% return on invested capital within Materials (Agricultural Chemicals), balanced against a 13.2x enterprise multiple and 7.0% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 30.6% gross profitability converts into 10.5% operating margin and 16.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 16.3% // GM: 30.6%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.9% paired with 7.60% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.9% // FCF YLD: 7.60%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.32 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.32 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.8x trailing P/E (23.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.8x // EV/EBITDA: 13.2x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.0% implied move with a 0.77 put/call ratio around $61.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.0% // P/C: 0.77

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Agricultural Chemicals require continuous execution to defend 4.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.3% // D/E: 0.85x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.03).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 24.8x

FORWARD P/E 23.1x

EV / EBITDA 13.2x

FCF YIELD 7.60%

GROSS MARGIN 30.6%

OPERATING MARGIN 10.5%

NET MARGIN 4.3%

ROIC % 16.3%

REV GROWTH YOY -3.9%

DILUTED EPS TTM $2.49

DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x

DIVIDEND YIELD 4.28%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 75.5

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.03

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SMGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $56.61

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SMG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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