SMCIP // Super Micro Computer Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001375365 ↗

Technology • Computer Manufacturing

$58.64 ▼ -2.37 (-3.88%)

MKT CAP: $38.52B • VOL: 454.1K

52W L $43 52W H $76

ALTMAN Z

2.69 GREY

PIOTROSKI

6 / 9

SMCIP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 63/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

63 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

15 / 20

SOLID

FCF +158.7% vs NI -9% • ROIC-WACC +0.7% • Z 2.69

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did SMCIP's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever SMCIP is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON SMCIP)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.87σ

SMCIP Accounting Gap: Net Income (-9%) Outpaced OCF (+166.8%) With +153.4% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

-175.8% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+153.4% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCIP) exposes a +-175.8% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (-9.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+166.8%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +153.4% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

SMCIP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.79%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $55.93H $56.64L $54.01C $56.60VOL 405.7K

RES: $77.60SUP: $51.78SMA50: $64.50SMA200: $58.81

SMCIP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 67/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCIP) exhibits 11.1% gross margins and 8.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Manufacturing), balanced against a 31.8x enterprise multiple and 7.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 11.1% gross profitability converts into 5.7% operating margin and 8.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.4% // GM: 11.1%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +46.6% paired with 3.98% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +46.6% // FCF YLD: 3.98%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.69 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.69 // F-SCORE: 6/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 36.7x trailing P/E (30.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 36.7x // EV/EBITDA: 31.8x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.6% implied move with a 0.89 put/call ratio around $57.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.6% // P/C: 0.89

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend 4.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.8% // D/E: 1.26x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 30.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.22).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 36.7x

FORWARD P/E 30.8x

EV / EBITDA 31.8x

FCF YIELD 3.98%

GROSS MARGIN 11.1%

OPERATING MARGIN 5.7%

NET MARGIN 4.8%

ROIC % 8.4%

REV GROWTH YOY +46.6%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.60

DEBT / EQUITY 1.26x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.4

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.22

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SMCIPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $53.66

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SMCIP & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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