PEN // Penumbra Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001321732 ↗

Health Care • Medical/Dental Instruments

$321.97 ▲ +3.66 (+1.15%)

MKT CAP: $12.68B • VOL: 672.9K

52W L $221 52W H $362

ALTMAN Z

21.05 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

9 / 9

PEN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

65 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

13 / 20

SOLID

FCF +18.8% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +1.6% • Z 21.05

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

17 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON PEN)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.80σ

PEN Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+41.7%) With +46.8% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+178.3% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+46.8% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Penumbra Inc. (PEN) exposes a +178.3% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+41.7%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +46.8% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

PEN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.31%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $320.6H $321.8L $318.3C $319.0VOL 497.7K

RES: $325.3SUP: $316.4SMA50: $320.5SMA200: $327.5

PEN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Penumbra Inc. (PEN) exhibits 67.1% gross margins and 10.6% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical/Dental Instruments), balanced against a 52.0x enterprise multiple and 6.6% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 67.1% gross profitability converts into 13.5% operating margin and 10.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 10.6% // GM: 67.1%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +17.5% paired with 1.38% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +17.5% // FCF YLD: 1.38%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 21.05 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 21.05 // F-SCORE: 9/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 71.4x trailing P/E (60.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 71.4x // EV/EBITDA: 52.0x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.6% implied move with a 0.81 put/call ratio around $316.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.6% // P/C: 0.81

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical/Dental Instruments require continuous execution to defend 12.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.7% // D/E: 0.12x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 60.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.91).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 71.4x

FORWARD P/E 60.0x

EV / EBITDA 52.0x

FCF YIELD 1.38%

GROSS MARGIN 67.1%

OPERATING MARGIN 13.5%

NET MARGIN 12.7%

ROIC % 10.6%

REV GROWTH YOY +17.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $4.51

DEBT / EQUITY 0.12x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.7

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.91

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PENPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $294.61

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for PEN & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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