MS // Morgan Stanley

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000895421 ↗

Financials • Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service

$190.00 ▼ -0.13 (-0.07%)

MKT CAP: $298.41B • VOL: 5.55M

52W L $153 52W H $232

ALTMAN Z

0.46 RISK

PIOTROSKI

5 / 9

MS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

56 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.87

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

14 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON MS)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 84/100 Z-SCORE: +2.55σ

MS Accounting Gap: Net Income (+25.9%) Outpaced OCF (-120%) With +0% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+145.9% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+0.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Morgan Stanley (MS) exposes a +145.9% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+25.9%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-120.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +0.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

MS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.30%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $185.9H $187.0L $182.2C $184.3VOL 7.94M

RES: $204.8SUP: $170.4SMA50: $198.1SMA200: $194.3

MS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 43/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Morgan Stanley (MS) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 3.0% return on invested capital within Financials (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), balanced against a 31.0x enterprise multiple and 7.0% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 24.6% operating margin and 3.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.0% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.5% paired with -7.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.5% // FCF YLD: -7.25%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.46 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.46 // F-SCORE: 5/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 17.7x trailing P/E (16.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 17.7x // EV/EBITDA: 31.0x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.0% implied move with a 0.87 put/call ratio around $186.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.0% // P/C: 0.87

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service require continuous execution to defend 20.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 20.2% // D/E: 4.92x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 16.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.04).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 17.7x

FORWARD P/E 16.5x

EV / EBITDA 31.0x

FCF YIELD -7.25%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 24.6%

NET MARGIN 20.2%

ROIC % 3.0%

REV GROWTH YOY +5.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $10.74

DEBT / EQUITY 4.92x

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.21%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.3

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.04

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $173.86

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

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