MOS // Mosaic Company (The)

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001285785 ↗

Materials • Agricultural Chemicals

$18.23 ▼ -0.10 (-0.55%)

MKT CAP: $5.80B • VOL: 6.94M

52W L $17 52W H $32

ALTMAN Z

1.77 RISK

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

MOS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

54 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.90

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON MOS)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.82σ

MOS Accounting Gap: Net Income (+209.1%) Outpaced OCF (-36.5%) With +9% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+245.7% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+9.0% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) exposes a +245.7% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+209.1%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-36.5%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +9.0% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

MOS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.97%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $18.06H $18.46L $18.04C $18.39VOL 8.88M

RES: $28.29SUP: $16.50SMA50: $22.06SMA200: $23.88

MOS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Mosaic Company (The) (MOS) exhibits 15.8% gross margins and 3.9% return on invested capital within Materials (Agricultural Chemicals), balanced against a 5.3x enterprise multiple and 6.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 15.8% gross profitability converts into 6.8% operating margin and 3.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.9% // GM: 15.8%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.4% paired with -9.22% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.4% // FCF YLD: -9.22%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.77 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.77 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.7x trailing P/E (10.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.7x // EV/EBITDA: 5.3x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.5% implied move with a 0.90 put/call ratio around $18.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.5% // P/C: 0.90

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Agricultural Chemicals require continuous execution to defend 4.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.5% // D/E: 0.41x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 10.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.87).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 10.7x

FORWARD P/E 10.0x

EV / EBITDA 5.3x

FCF YIELD -9.22%

GROSS MARGIN 15.8%

OPERATING MARGIN 6.8%

NET MARGIN 4.5%

ROIC % 3.9%

REV GROWTH YOY +8.4%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.70

DEBT / EQUITY 0.41x

DIVIDEND YIELD 4.84%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 38.1

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.87

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MOSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $16.68

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MOS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

MOS VS LIN

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

MOS VS SCCO

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

MOS VS NEM

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

MOS VS RIO

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION