MARA // MARA Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001507605 ↗

Financials • Finance: Consumer Services

$7.17 ▼ -0.18 (-2.52%)

MKT CAP: $2.77B • VOL: 34.31M

52W L $6 52W H $19

ALTMAN Z

0.45 RISK

PIOTROSKI

4 / 9

MARA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 57/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

57 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.90

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON MARA)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 82/100 Z-SCORE: +2.34σ

MARA Accounting Gap: Net Income (-120%) Outpaced OCF (-18.6%) With +88.2% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

-101.4% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+88.2% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) exposes a +-101.4% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (-120.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-18.6%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +88.2% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

MARA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -43.54%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $6.81H $6.82L $6.45C $6.77VOL 43.07M

RES: $14.56SUP: $6.37SMA50: $10.37SMA200: $10.80

MARA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and -15.8% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 7.0% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -15.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -15.8% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -39.2% paired with -18.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -39.2% // FCF YLD: -18.00%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.45 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.45 // F-SCORE: 4/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (27.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.0% implied move with a 0.90 put/call ratio around $7.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.0% // P/C: 0.90

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.92x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 27.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.03).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E —

FORWARD P/E 27.0x

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD -18.00%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%

NET MARGIN -60.0%

ROIC % -15.8%

REV GROWTH YOY -39.2%

DILUTED EPS TTM $-3.40

DEBT / EQUITY 0.92x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 27.5

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.03

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MARAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $6.56

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MARA & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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