FIX // Comfort Systems USA Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001035983 ↗

Industrials • Engineering & Construction

$1,326.23 ▼ -19.54 (-1.45%)

MKT CAP: $46.40B • VOL: 660.6K

52W L $842 52W H $2,074

ALTMAN Z

8.06 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

FIX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 63/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

63 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

14 / 20

SOLID

FCF +39.8% vs NI +95.7% • ROIC-WACC -5.8% • Z 8.06

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

14 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did FIX's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever FIX is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON FIX)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.70σ

FIX Accrual Watch: +56.0% Cash Conversion Gap as Receivables Bloat Hits +113.6%

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+56.0% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+113.6% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

Comfort Systems USA presents an F-rated earnings mirage evidenced by net income growth of 95.7% decoupling from operating cash flow growth of 39.7%, generating a +56.0% cash conversion gap with a 3.7 z-score. Working capital health has deteriorated sharply as receivables bloat outpaced revenue expansion by +113.6% across recent regulatory filings. Despite C-suite Form 4 open-market dispositions sitting at 0 USD over the trailing 60 days, this severe multi-feed cash flow divergence signals significant accrual drag.

FIX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.02%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $1,237.8H $1,294.2L $1,216.1C $1,232.7VOL 763.5K

RES: $1,777.3SUP: $1,081.5SMA50: $1,561.7SMA200: $1,605.6

FIX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Comfort Systems USA Inc. (FIX) exhibits 22.0% gross margins and 4.5% return on invested capital within Industrials (Engineering & Construction), balanced against a 95.0x enterprise multiple and 7.3% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 22.0% gross profitability converts into 11.4% operating margin and 4.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.5% // GM: 22.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -65.0% paired with 2.22% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -65.0% // FCF YLD: 2.22%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 8.06 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 8.06 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 45.4x trailing P/E (42.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 45.4x // EV/EBITDA: 95.0x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.3% implied move with a 0.84 put/call ratio around $1,300.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.3% // P/C: 0.84

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Engineering & Construction require continuous execution to defend 55.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 55.8% // D/E: 0.06x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 42.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.13).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 45.4x

FORWARD P/E 42.2x

EV / EBITDA 95.0x

FCF YIELD 2.22%

GROSS MARGIN 22.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 11.4%

NET MARGIN 55.8%

ROIC % 4.5%

REV GROWTH YOY -65.0%

DILUTED EPS TTM $29.23

DEBT / EQUITY 0.06x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.15%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 33.5

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.13

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FIXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $1,213.54

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for FIX & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

FIX VS BRK-A

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

FIX VS CAT

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

FIX VS RTX

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

FIX VS TMO

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION