CG // The Carlyle Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0001527166 ↗

Financials • Investment Managers

$40.57 ▲ +1.51 (+3.87%)

MKT CAP: $14.46B • VOL: 3.05M

52W L $35 52W H $67

ALTMAN Z

0.91 RISK

PIOTROSKI

3 / 9

CG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

55 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.62

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON CG)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 86/100 Z-SCORE: +2.68σ

CG Accounting Gap: Net Income (-20.7%) Outpaced OCF (-120%) With +32.6% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+99.3% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+32.6% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) exposes a +99.3% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (-20.7%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-120.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +32.6% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

CG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.75%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $40.41H $40.48L $39.70C $40.18VOL 2.64M

RES: $51.44SUP: $33.80SMA50: $41.47SMA200: $47.20

CG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 36/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 5.4% return on invested capital within Financials (Investment Managers), balanced against a 20.3x enterprise multiple and 6.5% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 20.6% operating margin and 5.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.4% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -11.9% paired with -18.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -11.9% // FCF YLD: -18.00%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.91 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.91 // F-SCORE: 3/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 17.9x trailing P/E (16.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 17.9x // EV/EBITDA: 20.3x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.5% implied move with a 0.62 put/call ratio around $40.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.5% // P/C: 0.62

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Investment Managers require continuous execution to defend 16.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.9% // D/E: 1.31x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 16.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 17.9x

FORWARD P/E 16.6x

EV / EBITDA 20.3x

FCF YIELD -18.00%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 20.6%

NET MARGIN 16.9%

ROIC % 5.4%

REV GROWTH YOY -11.9%

DILUTED EPS TTM $2.27

DEBT / EQUITY 1.31x

DIVIDEND YIELD 3.49%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.2

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $37.12

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

CG VS BRK-B

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

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MARGINS ROIC VALUATION