BYD // Boyd Gaming Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000906553 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Hotels/Resorts

$72.43 ▲ +1.66 (+2.35%)

MKT CAP: $5.12B • VOL: 964.3K

52W L $65 52W H $91

ALTMAN Z

2.44 GREY

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

BYD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

▼ DOWNGRADE // C- (RQD 59) -> D+ (RQD 58) AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

58 / 100 -1D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.61

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

13 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

16 / 20

STRONG

20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON BYD)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +3.52σ

BYD Accounting Gap: Net Income (+218.9%) Outpaced OCF (+2%) With +-31.7% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+216.9% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

-31.7% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) exposes a +216.9% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+218.9%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+2.0%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded -31.7% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

BYD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.24%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $73.15H $73.17L $71.81C $72.83VOL 1.13M

RES: $94.24SUP: $59.61SMA50: $73.24SMA200: $81.83

BYD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 13.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Hotels/Resorts), balanced against a 5.5x enterprise multiple and 7.1% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 18.3% operating margin and 13.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 13.7% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.1% paired with 7.59% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.1% // FCF YLD: 7.59%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.44 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.44 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 4.5x trailing P/E (4.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 4.5x // EV/EBITDA: 5.5x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.1% implied move with a 0.61 put/call ratio around $71.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.1% // P/C: 0.61

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Hotels/Resorts require continuous execution to defend 45.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 45.0% // D/E: 0.78x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 4.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 4.5x

FORWARD P/E 4.2x

EV / EBITDA 5.5x

FCF YIELD 7.59%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 18.3%

NET MARGIN 45.0%

ROIC % 13.7%

REV GROWTH YOY +4.1%

DILUTED EPS TTM $26.08

DEBT / EQUITY 0.78x

DIVIDEND YIELD 1.14%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.5

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BYDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $66.28

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for BYD & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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