AXS // Axis Capital Holdings Limited

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0001214816 ↗

Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers

$102.84 ▲ +1.23 (+1.21%)

MKT CAP: $7.38B • VOL: 1.00M

52W L $92 52W H $120

ALTMAN Z

0.94 RISK

PIOTROSKI

4 / 9

AXS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 53/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

53 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.76

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

15 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did AXS's Forensic Fundamentals & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AXS is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON AXS)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 79/100 Z-SCORE: +2.10σ

AXS Accounting Gap: Net Income (-6.7%) Outpaced OCF (-102.2%) With +10.2% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+95.5% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+10.2% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) exposes a +95.5% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (-6.7%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-102.2%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +10.2% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

AXS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.44%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $104.4H $104.9L $102.7C $104.9VOL 975.8K

RES: $105.3SUP: $90.30SMA50: $98.74SMA200: $102.0

AXS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) exhibits 41.0% gross margins and 5.6% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 12.4x enterprise multiple and 6.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.0% gross profitability converts into 18.8% operating margin and 5.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.6% // GM: 41.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.2% paired with -4.56% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.2% // FCF YLD: -4.56%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.94 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.94 // F-SCORE: 4/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 7.3x trailing P/E (6.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 7.3x // EV/EBITDA: 12.4x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.8% implied move with a 0.76 put/call ratio around $101.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.8% // P/C: 0.76

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 15.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.4% // D/E: 1.86x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.98).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 7.3x

FORWARD P/E 6.8x

EV / EBITDA 12.4x

FCF YIELD -4.56%

GROSS MARGIN 41.0%

OPERATING MARGIN 18.8%

NET MARGIN 15.4%

ROIC % 5.6%

REV GROWTH YOY +10.2%

DILUTED EPS TTM $14.06

DEBT / EQUITY 1.86x

DIVIDEND YIELD 1.93%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.7

5Y EQUITY BETA 0.98

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AXSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $94.10

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AXS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

AXS VS BRK-B

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

AXS VS JPM

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

AXS VS BAC

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

AXS VS MS

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION