AGCO // AGCO Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE CIK 0000880266 ↗

Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components

$107.84 ▲ +5.68 (+5.56%)

MKT CAP: $7.55B • VOL: 1.96M

52W L $98 52W H $144

ALTMAN Z

2.48 GREY

PIOTROSKI

7 / 9

AGCO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C

RQD CONFIDENCE

64 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF +149.6% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -0.3% • Z 2.48

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

15 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

15 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 5 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

Why did AGCO's Whale & Options Flow & Insider Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AGCO is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON AGCO)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 88/100 Z-SCORE: +2.89σ

AGCO Accounting Gap: Net Income (+220%) Outpaced OCF (+43.2%) With +9.3% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+176.8% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+9.3% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on AGCO Corporation (AGCO) exposes a +176.8% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (+220.0%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (+43.2%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +9.3% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

AGCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.35%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $107.4H $111.6L $107.4C $110.9VOL 848.7K

RES: $140.9SUP: $89.83SMA50: $114.0SMA200: $116.3

AGCO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 38/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

AGCO Corporation (AGCO) exhibits 25.5% gross margins and 8.2% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 11.2x enterprise multiple and 7.2% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 25.5% gross profitability converts into 5.9% operating margin and 8.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.2% // GM: 25.5%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -13.5% paired with 9.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -13.5% // FCF YLD: 9.80%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.48 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.48 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.4x trailing P/E (9.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.4x // EV/EBITDA: 11.2x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±7.2% implied move with a 0.51 put/call ratio around $106.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±7.2% // P/C: 0.51

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 7.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.2% // D/E: 0.54x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.08).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 10.4x

FORWARD P/E 9.7x

EV / EBITDA 11.2x

FCF YIELD 9.80%

GROSS MARGIN 25.5%

OPERATING MARGIN 5.9%

NET MARGIN 7.2%

ROIC % 8.2%

REV GROWTH YOY -13.5%

DILUTED EPS TTM $10.37

DEBT / EQUITY 0.54x

DIVIDEND YIELD 1.15%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.1

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.08

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AGCOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $98.68

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AGCO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>

AGCO VS BRK-A

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

AGCO VS CAT

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

AGCO VS RTX

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION

AGCO VS TMO

MARGINS ROIC VALUATION