AAON // AAON Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ CIK 0000824142 ↗

Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components

$75.30 ▼ -0.31 (-0.41%)

MKT CAP: $6.21B • VOL: 648.2K

52W L $66 52W H $150

ALTMAN Z

6.82 SAFE

PIOTROSKI

5 / 9

AAON // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

59 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F

Whale & Options Flow

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

NET GEX +0% • CALL SWEEP 52% • P/C 0.74

03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)

Insider Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

16 / 20

STRONG

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

13 / 20

SOLID

20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE

ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON AAON)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▼ BEARISH // F-RATED EARNINGS MIRAGE // ACCRUAL WATCHSIFTER 02 // ACCRUAL & RECEIVABLES FORENSICS

SEVERITY: 87/100 Z-SCORE: +2.79σ

AAON Accounting Gap: Net Income (-36.2%) Outpaced OCF (-99.7%) With +57.9% Working-Capital Build

CASH CONVERSION GAP

+63.6% (NI vs OCF)

RECEIVABLES / WC BLOAT

+57.9% VS REV

60D C-SUITE FORM 4 SALES

0 OPEN-MKT DUMPS

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // SEC XBRL × FORM 4 CROSS-CHECK]

SEC EDGAR XBRL CompanyFacts10-K/10-Q Working Capital ScheduleSEC Form 4 Executive Sales

SEC EDGAR XBRL triangulation on AAON Inc. (AAON) exposes a +63.6% Cash Conversion Gap as YoY Net Income growth (-36.2%) diverged from Operating Cash Flow growth (-99.7%). Non-cash current assets and receivables expanded +57.9% relative to top-line revenue growth. Monitor upcoming 10-Q cash realization closely for accrual mean-reversion.

AAON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.77%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $71.72H $71.90L $65.55C $67.40VOL 1.83M

RES: $77.32SUP: $56.33SMA50: $78.65SMA200: $97.75

AAON // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

AAON Inc. (AAON) exhibits 26.7% gross margins and 9.5% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 32.5x enterprise multiple and 6.9% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 26.7% gross profitability converts into 10.1% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.5% // GM: 26.7%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.2% paired with -1.04% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.2% // FCF YLD: -1.04%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.82 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.82 // F-SCORE: 5/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 57.7x trailing P/E (48.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 57.7x // EV/EBITDA: 32.5x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±6.9% implied move with a 0.74 put/call ratio around $74.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±6.9% // P/C: 0.74

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 7.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.5% // D/E: 0.39x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 48.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.01).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 57.7x

FORWARD P/E 48.5x

EV / EBITDA 32.5x

FCF YIELD -1.04%

GROSS MARGIN 26.7%

OPERATING MARGIN 10.1%

NET MARGIN 7.5%

ROIC % 9.5%

REV GROWTH YOY +13.2%

DILUTED EPS TTM $1.30

DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.53%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 34.8

5Y EQUITY BETA 1.01

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AAONPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $68.90

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AAON & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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