ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AVAH // Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001832332 ↗
Health Care • Medical/Nursing Services
$13.26 ▲ +0.20 (+1.53%)
MKT CAP: $2.89B • VOL: 2.33M
AVAH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +9.5% • Z 1.86
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 62% • VS 200D +2.6% • RSI 56.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +4.4% • P/E N/A • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AVAH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +102.75%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $13.39H $13.43L $12.96C $13.26VOL 1.34M
RES: $17.79SUP: $11.40SMA50: $13.10SMA200: $9.23
$15.30$12.87$10.45$8.02$5.60RES $17.79SUP $11.40$13.262026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AVAH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 60/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) exhibits 33.3% gross margins and 15.7% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical/Nursing Services), balanced against a 15.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 33.3% gross profitability converts into 10.5% operating margin and 15.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 15.7% // GM: 33.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +20.2% paired with 4.35% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +20.2% // FCF YLD: 4.35%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.86 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.86 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 15.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $13.26 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical/Nursing Services require continuous execution to defend 0.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.0% // D/E: 6.62x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 15.5x
FCF YIELD 4.35%
GROSS MARGIN 33.3%
OPERATING MARGIN 10.5%
NET MARGIN 0.0%
ROIC % 15.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +20.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 6.62x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.0
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AVAHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $12.13
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>