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Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$13.26 +1.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.27

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.89B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.27 (+0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 5.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVAH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVAH SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.2% FCF Margin ($125.9M FCF) & 33.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$12.25+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$12.34+8.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$13.38-0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C$13.26+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AVAH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, AVAH faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.10) or 200D SMA ($9.23) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.68) toward Bear Floor ($10.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVAH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVAH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

5630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

1.86>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE83% OF RANGE

L: $6$13.26H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (33% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on AVAH

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

15.7% ROIC with 33.3% gross margin and 4.35% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.86 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (63)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AVAH

✓Strong cash generator (33% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AVAH Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AVAH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +102.75%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $13.39H $13.43L $12.96C $13.26VOL 1.34M

RES: $17.79SUP: $11.40SMA50: $13.10SMA200: $9.23

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVAH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVAH Butterfly Map → + Track AVAH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

12.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVAH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVAH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVAH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVAH)

Health Care Rank #135 of 1016 ⚔️ PRVA vs AVAH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVAH vs. PRVA, ADUS, WGS, OPCH)

Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) ranks #135 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #211 by equity capitalization ($2.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPCH leads on earnings valuation at 23.0x trailing P/E, while AVAH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.7% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. OPCH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with AVAH at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVAH ACTIVE Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.	C	65/100	—	33.3%	15.7%	+1.53%	$2.89B	Benchmark Subject
PRVA Privia Health Group Inc.	D+	57/100	122.6x	—	10.5%	+0.71%	$2.81B	/prva-vs-avah →
ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation	C+	69/100	24.2x	32.5%	9.1%	+1.77%	$2.32B	/adus-vs-avah →
WGS GeneDx Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D+	58/100	—	69.7%	-4.1%	+9.79%	$2.12B	/wgs-vs-avah →
OPCH Option Care Health Inc.	B	75/100	23.0x	19.3%	11.9%	+1.79%	$4.77B	/opch-vs-avah →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001832332

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) reported GAAP revenue of $2.43B (+20.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.02B , and +28.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $225.0K, operating cash flow of $125.9M, and free cash flow of $125.9M (+285.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVAH closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $1.29B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.86, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$2.43B	$225.0K	$125.9M	$125.9M	$2.01B	$1.29B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$2.02B	-$10.9K	$32.6M	$32.6M	$1.66B	$1.27B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$1.90B	-$134.5K	$22.7M	$22.7M	—	—

3. AVAH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVAH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $13.26 (+1.53% 1D, market cap $2.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVAH ranks #135 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVAH compare to PRVA and ADUS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), AVAH carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of 15.7%. By comparison, PRVA (Privia Health Group Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 122.6x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $2.81B) and ADUS (Addus HomeCare Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 24.2x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $2.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPCH leads on earnings multiple (23.0x) while AVAH leads on capital efficiency (15.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVAH?

Per AVAH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001832332), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. generated $2.43B in revenue (+20.2% YoY), $225.0K in net income, and $125.9M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $1.29B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (33% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVAH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVAH last traded at $13.26 (+1.53% on volume of 2,327,130 shares), positioning the stock +1.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.10) and +43.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.23). Across its 52-week range of $5.93 to $14.71, AVAH sits at the 83.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($12.36 to $14.16).

AVAH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AVAH stock right now?

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 33% profit margin (16% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is AVAH's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AVAH's 12-month base price target is $13.68 (range $10.67 to $16.14), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVAH RQD Cockpit AVAH 12M Forecast AVAH Earnings & Move AVAH Dividends & DRIP AVAH Insiders & 13F AVAH Whale Options AVAH Profit Sankey AVAH News & Why