Stock Ratings / Health Care / AVAH / earnings

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Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.8% Move

$13.26 +1.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.27

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.89B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.27 (+0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 5.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVAH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVAH SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.2% FCF Margin ($125.9M FCF) & 33.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$12.25+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$12.34+8.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$13.38-0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C$13.26+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AVAH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, AVAH faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.10) or 200D SMA ($9.23) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.68) toward Bear Floor ($10.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVAH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVAH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 2, 2027 (~61 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.8% Swing Band

±$0.90 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AVAH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 65/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 20.2%

Model Bullish Setup (65/100)Model Risk Weight (35/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-01-03	$2.43B	$225.0K	$125.9M	33.3%
FY 2024	2024-12-28	$2.02B	-$10.9K	$32.6M	31.4%
FY 2023	2023-12-30	$1.90B	-$134.5K	$22.7M	33.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AVAH & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AVAH
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AVAH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +102.75%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $13.39H $13.43L $12.96C $13.26VOL 1.34M

RES: $17.79SUP: $11.40SMA50: $13.10SMA200: $9.23

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVAH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVAH Butterfly Map → + Track AVAH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

12.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVAH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVAH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVAH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVAH)

Health Care Rank #135 of 1016 ⚔️ PRVA vs AVAH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVAH vs. PRVA, ADUS, WGS, OPCH)

Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) ranks #135 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #211 by equity capitalization ($2.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPCH leads on earnings valuation at 23.0x trailing P/E, while AVAH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.7% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. OPCH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with AVAH at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVAH ACTIVE Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.	C	65/100	—	33.3%	15.7%	+1.53%	$2.89B	Benchmark Subject
PRVA Privia Health Group Inc.	D+	57/100	122.6x	—	10.5%	+0.71%	$2.81B	/prva-vs-avah →
ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation	C+	69/100	24.2x	32.5%	9.1%	+1.77%	$2.32B	/adus-vs-avah →
WGS GeneDx Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D+	58/100	—	69.7%	-4.1%	+9.79%	$2.12B	/wgs-vs-avah →
OPCH Option Care Health Inc.	B	75/100	23.0x	19.3%	11.9%	+1.79%	$4.77B	/opch-vs-avah →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001832332

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) reported GAAP revenue of $2.43B (+20.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.02B , and +28.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $225.0K, operating cash flow of $125.9M, and free cash flow of $125.9M (+285.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVAH closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $1.29B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.86, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$2.43B	$225.0K	$125.9M	$125.9M	$2.01B	$1.29B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$2.02B	-$10.9K	$32.6M	$32.6M	$1.66B	$1.27B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$1.90B	-$134.5K	$22.7M	$22.7M	—	—

3. AVAH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVAH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $13.26 (+1.53% 1D, market cap $2.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVAH ranks #135 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVAH compare to PRVA and ADUS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), AVAH carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of 15.7%. By comparison, PRVA (Privia Health Group Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 122.6x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $2.81B) and ADUS (Addus HomeCare Corporation) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 24.2x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $2.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPCH leads on earnings multiple (23.0x) while AVAH leads on capital efficiency (15.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVAH?

Per AVAH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001832332), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. generated $2.43B in revenue (+20.2% YoY), $225.0K in net income, and $125.9M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $1.29B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (33% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVAH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVAH last traded at $13.26 (+1.53% on volume of 2,327,130 shares), positioning the stock +1.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.10) and +43.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.23). Across its 52-week range of $5.93 to $14.71, AVAH sits at the 83.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($12.36 to $14.16).

AVAH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AVAH's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Jan 2, 2027.

How much is AVAH stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.8% event move for AVAH, spanning a range between $12.36 and $14.16.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVAH RQD Cockpit AVAH 12M Forecast AVAH Earnings & Move AVAH Dividends & DRIP AVAH Insiders & 13F AVAH Whale Options AVAH Profit Sankey AVAH News & Why