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Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$13.16 -0.75% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.12

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.89B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AVAH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVAH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $13.16 (-0.75% 1D, market cap $2.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVAH ranks #125 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVAH compare to PRVA and ADUS in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), AVAH carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of 15.7%. By comparison, PRVA (Privia Health Group Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 122.6x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $2.81B) and ADUS (Addus HomeCare Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 24.2x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $2.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPCH leads on earnings multiple (23.0x) while AVAH leads on capital efficiency (15.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVAH?

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Per AVAH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001832332), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. generated $2.43B in revenue (+20.2% YoY), $225.0K in net income, and $125.9M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $1.29B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (33% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.12 (-0.33%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 5.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVAH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVAH SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.2% FCF Margin ($125.9M FCF) & 33.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.6) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$12.21+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$12.44+5.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$13.18-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$13.16+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AVAH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, AVAH faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.11) or 200D SMA ($9.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.57) toward Bear Floor ($10.58).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVAH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVAH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

57.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

1.86>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE82% OF RANGE

L: $6$13.16H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (33% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on AVAH

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

15.7% ROIC with 33.3% gross margin and 4.35% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.86 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (63)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AVAH

✓Strong cash generator (33% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AVAH Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AVAH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +98.49%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $13.06H $13.26L $13.06C $13.16VOL 2.33M

RES: $17.87SUP: $11.45SMA50: $13.11SMA200: $9.25

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVAH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVAH Butterfly Map → + Track AVAH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

12.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVAH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVAH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVAH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVAH)

Health Care Rank #125 of 1016 ⚔️ PRVA vs AVAH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVAH vs. PRVA, ADUS, WGS, OPCH)

Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) ranks #125 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #211 by equity capitalization ($2.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPCH leads on earnings valuation at 23.0x trailing P/E, while AVAH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.7% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. OPCH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with AVAH at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVAH ACTIVE Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.	C	65/100	—	33.3%	15.7%	-0.75%	$2.89B	Benchmark Subject
PRVA Privia Health Group Inc.	D+	56/100	122.6x	—	10.5%	-2.34%	$2.81B	/prva-vs-avah →
ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation	B	73/100	24.2x	32.5%	9.1%	+0.97%	$2.32B	/adus-vs-avah →
WGS GeneDx Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D	47/100	—	69.7%	-4.1%	-2.76%	$2.12B	/wgs-vs-avah →
OPCH Option Care Health Inc.	B	75/100	23.0x	19.3%	11.9%	-0.06%	$4.77B	/opch-vs-avah →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001832332

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) reported GAAP revenue of $2.43B (+20.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.02B , and +28.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $225.0K, operating cash flow of $125.9M, and free cash flow of $125.9M (+285.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVAH closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $1.29B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.86, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$2.43B	$225.0K	$125.9M	$125.9M	$2.01B	$1.29B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$2.02B	-$10.9K	$32.6M	$32.6M	$1.66B	$1.27B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$1.90B	-$134.5K	$22.7M	$22.7M	—	—

3. AVAH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVAH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AVAH compare to PRVA and ADUS in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVAH?

Where is AVAH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVAH last traded at $13.16 (-0.75% on volume of 1,338,902 shares), positioning the stock +0.38% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.11) and +42.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.25). Across its 52-week range of $5.93 to $14.71, AVAH sits at the 82.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($12.29 to $14.03).

AVAH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AVAH stock right now?

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 33% profit margin (16% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is AVAH's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AVAH's 12-month base price target is $13.57 (range $10.58 to $16.01), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVAH RQD Cockpit AVAH 12M Forecast AVAH Earnings & Move AVAH Dividends & DRIP AVAH Insiders & 13F AVAH Whale Options AVAH Profit Sankey AVAH News & Why