COMP <GO>
UPST vs MS // 10Y YIELD & FRED MACRO BETA
Upstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ) VS. Morgan Stanley (NYSE) • 15-METRIC TALLY: UPST 4
— MS 7
▲ 10Y YIELD & FRED MACRO BETA LEADER: MS
LAST: $24.84 (+2.90%) • MKT CAP: $2.42B
macro-sensitivity
0.92
LAST: $190.00 (-0.07%) • MKT CAP: $298.41B
macro-sensitivity
1.04
15-METRIC INSTITUTIONAL SIDE-BY-SIDE SCORECARD (UPST VS. MS)
EMERALD CELL = QUANTITATIVE EDGE
| INSTITUTIONAL METRIC | UPST | MS | SPREAD (A - B) | ADVANTAGE | DEDICATED URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | — | — | — | TIE | /gross-margins <GO> |
| Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 3.20% | 3.00% | +0.20 | UPST | /roic <GO> |
| EV/EBITDA & P/E Valuation | 62.4x | 31.0x | +31.40 | MS | /valuation <GO> |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | -6.13% | -7.25% | +1.12 | UPST | /fcf-yield <GO> |
| Operating Margin | 4.10% | 24.60% | -20.50 | MS | /operating-margins <GO> |
| Net Profit Margin | 5.10% | 20.20% | -15.10 | MS | /net-margins <GO> |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 64.00% | 5.50% | +58.50 | UPST | /revenue-growth <GO> |
| Dividend Yield & FCF Payout Safety | 0.00% | 2.21% | -2.21 | MS | /dividend-safety <GO> |
| Altman Z-Score & Debt/Equity | — | — | — | TIE | /balance-sheet <GO> |
| Piotroski F-Score Quality | 5/9 | 5/9 | 0.00 | TIE | /piotroski-score <GO> |
| Options Implied Move & Put/Call Skew | — | — | — | TIE | /options-implied-move <GO> |
| RSI-14 & 200D SMA Momentum | 53.3 | 51.0 | +2.30 | UPST | /rsi-technicals <GO> |
| 10Y Yield & FRED Macro Beta ACTIVE | 0.92 | 1.04 | -0.12 | MS | /macro-sensitivity <GO> |
| Forward P/E Multiple | 37.9x | 16.5x | +21.40 | MS | /forward-pe <GO> |
| Enterprise Scale & Market Cap | $2.42B | $298.41B | -$295.99B | MS | /market-cap <GO> |
5-YEAR HISTORICAL XBRL REVENUE & MARGIN TRAJECTORY SEC FORM 10-K FY
| FISCAL YEAR | UPST REV | MS REV | UPST GROSS % | MS GROSS % | UPST FCF | MS FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $1.04B | $0 | — | — | -$148.1M | -$17.89B |
| FY 2024 | $636.5M | $0 | — | — | $185.5M | $1.36B |
| FY 2023 | $513.6M | $0 | — | — | -$134.8M | -$33.54B |
FRED MACRO REGIME CORRELATION COMPARISON PEARSON r
UPST // BETA 0.92
MS // BETA 1.04