ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

WLFC // Willis Lease Finance Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001018164 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Industrial Specialties
$41.86 ▲ +1.63 (+4.05%)
MKT CAP: $955.0M • VOL: 221.3K
WLFC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
58 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -6.2% vs NI +4.6% • ROIC-WACC +4.2% • Z 0.66
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 53% • VS 200D +1.1% • RSI 61.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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WLFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -35.32%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $43.30H $43.83L $40.87C $41.86VOL 192.2K
RES: $85.13SUP: $34.59SMA50: $48.29SMA200: $60.35
$84.70$71.61$58.51$45.42$32.33RES $85.13SUP $34.59$41.862026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
WLFC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 62/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 12.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Industrial Specialties), balanced against a 7.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 14.3% operating margin and 12.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +28.3% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +28.3% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.66 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.66 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 8.4x trailing P/E (7.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 8.4x // EV/EBITDA: 7.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $41.86 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Specialties require continuous execution to defend 15.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 7.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 8.4x
FORWARD P/E 7.1x
EV / EBITDA 7.2x
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 14.3%
NET MARGIN 15.6%
ROIC % 12.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +28.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $5.00
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.91%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // WLFCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $38.30
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>