Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / WLFC

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Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$41.86 +4.05% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.09

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $955.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on WLFC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is WLFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: WLFC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $41.86 (+4.05% 1D, market cap $955.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WLFC ranks #640 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does WLFC compare to ADSE and DSGR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), WLFC carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.8%. By comparison, ADSE (ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $731.8M) and DSGR (Distribution Solutions Group Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLFC leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while WLFC leads on capital efficiency (12.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WLFC?

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Per WLFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018164), Willis Lease Finance Corporation generated $730.2M in revenue (+28.3% YoY), $114.0M in net income, and $252.2M in free cash flow against $3.94B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.09 (+0.54%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 34.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WLFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY WLFC SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 34.5% FCF Margin ($252.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$39.84-7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$37.07+4.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$38.70+8.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D$41.86-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a WLFC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While WLFC currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($48.04) and Max Pain ($43.95) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $85.62.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WLFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “WLFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

45.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.66>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE12% OF RANGE

L: $36$41.86H: $82

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on WLFC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

12.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 0.66 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like WLFC

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WLFC)

✓Walkthrough of WLFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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WLFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -35.89%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-02O $40.23H $41.86L $40.23C $41.86VOL 221.3K

RES: $41.33SUP: $32.24SMA50: $48.04SMA200: $60.27

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WLFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WLFC Butterfly Map → + Track WLFC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +28.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WLFC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WLFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WLFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WLFC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #640 of 1011 ⚔️ ADSE vs WLFC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (WLFC vs. ADSE, DSGR, PII, ASLE)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) ranks #640 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #514 by equity capitalization ($955.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WLFC leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while WLFC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.8% ROIC and — gross margin. DSGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with WLFC at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
WLFC ACTIVE Willis Lease Finance Corporation	D	46/100	8.4x	—	12.8%	+4.05%	$955.0M	Benchmark Subject
ADSE ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC	D	47/100	—	—	—	+0.10%	$731.8M	/adse-vs-wlfc →
DSGR Distribution Solutions Group Inc.	C	62/100	—	33.4%	4.9%	+0.09%	$1.62B	/dsgr-vs-wlfc →
PII Polaris Inc.	D-	40/100	—	19.1%	-11.5%	+2.78%	$3.43B	/pii-vs-wlfc →
ASLE AerSale Corporation	E	28/100	26.1x	31.5%	2.3%	+2.40%	$223.8M	/asle-vs-wlfc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001018164

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) reported GAAP revenue of $730.2M (+28.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $569.2M , and +74.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.0M, operating cash flow of $283.2M, and free cash flow of $252.2M (-6.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, WLFC closed FY2025 with $3.94B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.66, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$730.2M	$114.0M	$283.2M	$252.2M	$3.94B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$569.2M	$109.0M	$284.4M	$268.8M	$3.30B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$418.6M	$44.0M	$229.7M	$229.7M	—	—

3. WLFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WLFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does WLFC compare to ADSE and DSGR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WLFC?

Where is WLFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WLFC last traded at $41.86 (+4.05% on volume of 221,321 shares), positioning the stock -12.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($48.04) and -30.55% below its 200-day simple moving average ($60.27). Across its 52-week range of $36.39 to $81.54, WLFC sits at the 12.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($37.13 to $46.59).

WLFC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell WLFC stock right now?

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 46/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (13% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is WLFC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

WLFC's 12-month base price target is $39.6 (range $30.89 to $85.62), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: WLFC RQD Cockpit WLFC 12M Forecast WLFC Earnings & Move WLFC Dividends & DRIP WLFC Insiders & 13F WLFC Whale Options WLFC Profit Sankey WLFC News & Why