Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / WLFC / earnings

ADSE (61) DSGR (63) PII (40) ASLE (43) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±11.8% Move

$41.86 +4.05% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.09

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $955.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.09 (+0.54%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 34.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WLFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY WLFC SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 12% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$40.88-8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$37.61+3.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$38.99+7.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$41.86+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the WLFC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, WLFC faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($48.29) or 200D SMA ($60.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($41.86) toward Bear Floor ($32.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WLFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “WLFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±11.8% Swing Band

±$4.94 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

WLFC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 58/100

Trailing EPS: $5.00 • YoY Revenue Growth: 28.3%

Model Bullish Setup (58/100)Model Risk Weight (42/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$730.2M	$114.0M	$252.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$569.2M	$109.0M	$268.8M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$418.6M	$44.0M	$229.7M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WLFC)

✓Walkthrough of WLFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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WLFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -35.32%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $43.30H $43.83L $40.87C $41.86VOL 192.2K

RES: $85.13SUP: $34.59SMA50: $48.29SMA200: $60.35

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WLFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WLFC Butterfly Map → + Track WLFC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +28.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WLFC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WLFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WLFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WLFC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #446 of 1011 ⚔️ ADSE vs WLFC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (WLFC vs. ADSE, DSGR, PII, ASLE)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) ranks #446 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #514 by equity capitalization ($955.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WLFC leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while WLFC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.8% ROIC and — gross margin. DSGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with WLFC at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
WLFC ACTIVE Willis Lease Finance Corporation	D+	58/100	8.4x	—	12.8%	+4.05%	$955.0M	Benchmark Subject
ADSE ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+0.10%	$731.8M	/adse-vs-wlfc →
DSGR Distribution Solutions Group Inc.	C	63/100	—	33.4%	4.9%	+0.09%	$1.62B	/dsgr-vs-wlfc →
PII Polaris Inc.	D-	40/100	—	19.1%	-11.5%	+2.78%	$3.43B	/pii-vs-wlfc →
ASLE AerSale Corporation	D-	43/100	26.1x	31.5%	2.3%	+2.40%	$223.8M	/asle-vs-wlfc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001018164

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) reported GAAP revenue of $730.2M (+28.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $569.2M , and +74.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.0M, operating cash flow of $283.2M, and free cash flow of $252.2M (-6.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, WLFC closed FY2025 with $3.94B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.66, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$730.2M	$114.0M	$283.2M	$252.2M	$3.94B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$569.2M	$109.0M	$284.4M	$268.8M	$3.30B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$418.6M	$44.0M	$229.7M	$229.7M	—	—

3. WLFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WLFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: WLFC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $41.86 (+4.05% 1D, market cap $955.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WLFC ranks #446 in composite RQD confidence.

How does WLFC compare to ADSE and DSGR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), WLFC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.8%. By comparison, ADSE (ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $731.8M) and DSGR (Distribution Solutions Group Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLFC leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while WLFC leads on capital efficiency (12.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WLFC?

Per WLFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018164), Willis Lease Finance Corporation generated $730.2M in revenue (+28.3% YoY), $114.0M in net income, and $252.2M in free cash flow against $3.94B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is WLFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WLFC last traded at $41.86 (+4.05% on volume of 221,321 shares), positioning the stock -13.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($48.29) and -30.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($60.35). Across its 52-week range of $36.39 to $81.54, WLFC sits at the 12.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($36.92 to $46.80).

WLFC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is WLFC's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is WLFC stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±11.8% event move for WLFC, spanning a range between $36.92 and $46.8.

Direct Sub-Reports: WLFC RQD Cockpit WLFC 12M Forecast WLFC Earnings & Move WLFC Dividends & DRIP WLFC Insiders & 13F WLFC Whale Options WLFC Profit Sankey WLFC News & Why