Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / WLFC / financials

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Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$41.86 +4.05% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.09

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $955.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $42.09 (+0.54%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 34.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WLFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY WLFC SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 12% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$40.88-8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$37.61+3.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$38.99+7.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$41.86+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the WLFC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, WLFC faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($48.29) or 200D SMA ($60.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($41.86) toward Bear Floor ($32.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WLFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “WLFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How WLFC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$252.2M (34.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $418.6M

FY24

Rev $569.2M

FY25

Rev $730.2M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$730.2M	52%	14.3%	$114.0M	$252.2M	12.8%
FY 2024	$569.2M	52%	25.4%	$109.0M	$268.8M	21.1%
FY 2023	$418.6M	52%	15.3%	$44.0M	$229.7M	12.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WLFC)

✓Walkthrough of WLFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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WLFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -35.32%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $43.30H $43.83L $40.87C $41.86VOL 192.2K

RES: $85.13SUP: $34.59SMA50: $48.29SMA200: $60.35

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WLFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WLFC Butterfly Map → + Track WLFC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +28.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WLFC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WLFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WLFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WLFC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #446 of 1011 ⚔️ ADSE vs WLFC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (WLFC vs. ADSE, DSGR, PII, ASLE)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) ranks #446 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #514 by equity capitalization ($955.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WLFC leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while WLFC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.8% ROIC and — gross margin. DSGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with WLFC at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
WLFC ACTIVE Willis Lease Finance Corporation	D+	58/100	8.4x	—	12.8%	+4.05%	$955.0M	Benchmark Subject
ADSE ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+0.10%	$731.8M	/adse-vs-wlfc →
DSGR Distribution Solutions Group Inc.	C	63/100	—	33.4%	4.9%	+0.09%	$1.62B	/dsgr-vs-wlfc →
PII Polaris Inc.	D-	40/100	—	19.1%	-11.5%	+2.78%	$3.43B	/pii-vs-wlfc →
ASLE AerSale Corporation	D-	43/100	26.1x	31.5%	2.3%	+2.40%	$223.8M	/asle-vs-wlfc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001018164

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) reported GAAP revenue of $730.2M (+28.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $569.2M , and +74.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.0M, operating cash flow of $283.2M, and free cash flow of $252.2M (-6.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, WLFC closed FY2025 with $3.94B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.66, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$730.2M	$114.0M	$283.2M	$252.2M	$3.94B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$569.2M	$109.0M	$284.4M	$268.8M	$3.30B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$418.6M	$44.0M	$229.7M	$229.7M	—	—

3. WLFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WLFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: WLFC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $41.86 (+4.05% 1D, market cap $955.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WLFC ranks #446 in composite RQD confidence.

How does WLFC compare to ADSE and DSGR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), WLFC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.8%. By comparison, ADSE (ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $731.8M) and DSGR (Distribution Solutions Group Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLFC leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while WLFC leads on capital efficiency (12.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WLFC?

Per WLFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018164), Willis Lease Finance Corporation generated $730.2M in revenue (+28.3% YoY), $114.0M in net income, and $252.2M in free cash flow against $3.94B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is WLFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WLFC last traded at $41.86 (+4.05% on volume of 221,321 shares), positioning the stock -13.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($48.29) and -30.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($60.35). Across its 52-week range of $36.39 to $81.54, WLFC sits at the 12.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($36.92 to $46.80).

WLFC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), WLFC converted $730.2M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 14.3% operating margin, and $252.2M in free cash flow (34.5% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: WLFC RQD Cockpit WLFC 12M Forecast WLFC Earnings & Move WLFC Dividends & DRIP WLFC Insiders & 13F WLFC Whale Options WLFC Profit Sankey WLFC News & Why