ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SND // Smart Sand Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001529628 ↗
Materials • Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)
$4.89 ▼ -0.06 (-1.21%)
MKT CAP: $207.3M • VOL: 125.8K
SND // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +199.6% vs NI -55% • ROIC-WACC -11.6% • Z 2.58
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
14 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 6 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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SND // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.25%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $4.86H $4.92L $4.80C $4.89VOL 195.9K
RES: $5.51SUP: $4.70SMA50: $5.14SMA200: $4.88
$6.10$5.35$4.61$3.86$3.12RES $5.51SUP $4.70$4.892026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
SND // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Smart Sand Inc. (SND) exhibits 11.5% gross margins and -1.6% return on invested capital within Materials (Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)), balanced against a 154.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 11.5% gross profitability converts into -1.4% operating margin and -1.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -1.6% // GM: 11.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +6.0% paired with 15.69% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +6.0% // FCF YLD: 15.69%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.58 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.58 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 154.1x trailing P/E (140.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 154.1x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $4.89 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) require continuous execution to defend 0.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.4% // D/E: 0.04x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 140.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 154.1x
FORWARD P/E 140.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 15.69%
GROSS MARGIN 11.5%
OPERATING MARGIN -1.4%
NET MARGIN 0.4%
ROIC % -1.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +6.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.03
DEBT / EQUITY 0.04x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.87%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SNDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $4.47
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SND & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>