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Smart Sand Inc. (SND) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$4.89 -1.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.87

Smart Sand Inc. (SND) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $207.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.87 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 9.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SND)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SND SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 73% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.58 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$5.28-4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$5.07-6.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$4.76+2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$4.89+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SND Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, SND faces multiple-compression risk if 154.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 154x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($5.14) or 200D SMA ($4.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.91) toward Bear Floor ($3.83).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SND• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SND Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

40.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.58>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE73% OF RANGE

L: $2$4.89H: $6

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (12% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on SND

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

-1.6% ROIC with 11.5% gross margin and 15.69% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 2.58 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (57)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SND

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Priced at 154x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SND Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SND // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.25%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $4.86H $4.92L $4.80C $4.89VOL 195.9K

RES: $5.51SUP: $4.70SMA50: $5.14SMA200: $4.88

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SND Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SND Butterfly Map → + Track SND →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SND today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SND. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SND today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SND)

Materials Rank #69 of 270 ⚔️ IONR vs SND Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (SND vs. IONR, ABAT, PHOS, FEAM)

Industry: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smart Sand Inc. (SND) ranks #69 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #211 by equity capitalization ($207.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SND leads on earnings valuation at 154.1x trailing P/E, while SND leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -1.6% ROIC and 11.5% gross margin. SND currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SND ACTIVE Smart Sand Inc.	C-	59/100	154.1x	11.5%	-1.6%	-1.21%	$207.3M	Benchmark Subject
IONR ioneer Ltd	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+0.71%	$216.8M	/ionr-vs-snd →
ABAT American Battery Technology Company	E	34/100	—	-30.0%	-35.0%	-1.27%	$222.4M	/abat-vs-snd →
PHOS First Phosphate Corp.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-2.76%	$241.5M	/phos-vs-snd →
FEAM 5E Advanced Materials Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.81%	$127.1M	/feam-vs-snd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001529628

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smart Sand Inc. (SND) reported GAAP revenue of $330.2M (+6.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $311.4M , and +11.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.3M, operating cash flow of $44.1M, and free cash flow of $32.5M (+199.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SND closed FY2025 with $340.0M in total assets against $8.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.58, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$330.2M	$1.3M	$44.1M	$32.5M	$340.0M	$8.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$311.4M	$3.0M	$17.9M	$10.9M	$341.5M	$9.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$296.0M	$4.6M	$31.0M	$31.0M	—	—

3. SND Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Smart Sand Inc. (NASDAQ: SND) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $4.89 (-1.21% 1D, market cap $207.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, SND ranks #69 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SND compare to IONR and ABAT in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)), SND carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 154.1x, gross margin of 11.5%, and ROIC of -1.6%. By comparison, IONR (ioneer Ltd) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $216.8M) and ABAT (American Battery Technology Company) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $222.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SND leads on earnings multiple (154.1x) while SND leads on capital efficiency (-1.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SND?

Per SND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001529628), Smart Sand Inc. generated $330.2M in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $1.3M in net income, and $32.5M in free cash flow against $340.0M in total assets and $8.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SND trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SND last traded at $4.89 (-1.21% on volume of 125,816 shares), positioning the stock -4.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.14) and +0.20% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.88). Across its 52-week range of $2.08 to $5.92, SND sits at the 73.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($4.49 to $5.29).

SND Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell SND stock right now?

Smart Sand Inc. (SND) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 12% profit margin (-2% return on capital), mixed timing at 154x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is SND's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

SND's 12-month base price target is $4.91 (range $3.83 to $6.22), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: SND RQD Cockpit SND 12M Forecast SND Earnings & Move SND Dividends & DRIP SND Insiders & 13F SND Whale Options SND Profit Sankey SND News & Why