ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SMPL // The Simply Good Foods Company

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001702744 ↗
Consumer Staples • Packaged Foods
$10.66 ▼ -0.18 (-1.66%)
MKT CAP: $925.9M • VOL: 2.88M
SMPL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 63/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
63 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -24.8% vs NI -25.6% • ROIC-WACC -2.9% • Z 2.13
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +17.1% • P/E 8.3x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did SMPL's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever SMPL is Upgraded or Downgraded.

SMPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $10.89H $11.27L $10.66C $10.66VOL 1.98M
RES: $11.32SUP: $9.07SMA50: $10.41SMA200: $12.85
$21.91$18.51$15.12$11.72$8.33RES $11.32SUP $9.07$10.662026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
SMPL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) exhibits 36.2% gross margins and 6.4% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Packaged Foods), balanced against a 6.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 36.2% gross profitability converts into 10.8% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.4% // GM: 36.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.0% paired with 17.05% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.0% // FCF YLD: 17.05%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.13 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.13 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 8.9x trailing P/E (8.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 8.9x // EV/EBITDA: 6.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $10.66 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Packaged Foods require continuous execution to defend 7.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.1% // D/E: 0.23x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 8.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 8.9x
FORWARD P/E 8.3x
EV / EBITDA 6.5x
FCF YIELD 17.05%
GROSS MARGIN 36.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 10.8%
NET MARGIN 7.1%
ROIC % 6.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.19
DEBT / EQUITY 0.23x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.0
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SMPLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $9.75
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SMPL & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>