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The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.66 -1.66% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.61

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $925.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.61 (-0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 10.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SMPL SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.13 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$10.18+9.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$11.19-7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$10.41+2.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C$10.66+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMPL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, SMPL faces multiple-compression risk if 8.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.41) or 200D SMA ($12.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.90) toward Bear Floor ($8.50).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SMPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

5930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.13>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE10% OF RANGE

L: $9$10.66H: $22

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (36% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on SMPL

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

6.4% ROIC with 36.2% gross margin and 17.05% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 2.13 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (63)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SMPL

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SMPL Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SMPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $10.89H $11.27L $10.66C $10.66VOL 1.98M

RES: $11.32SUP: $9.07SMA50: $10.41SMA200: $12.85

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMPL Butterfly Map → + Track SMPL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMPL)

Consumer Staples Rank #39 of 146 ⚔️ BRBR vs SMPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (SMPL vs. BRBR, SENEA, SENEB, OFRM)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) ranks #39 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #76 by equity capitalization ($925.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRBR leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while BRBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 46.3% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. BRBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SMPL at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SMPL ACTIVE The Simply Good Foods Company	C	63/100	8.9x	36.2%	6.4%	-1.66%	$925.9M	Benchmark Subject
BRBR BellRing Brands Inc.	B	75/100	4.9x	33.3%	46.3%	-2.48%	$1.05B	/brbr-vs-smpl →
SENEA Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A)	D	51/100	9.4x	—	16.1%	+1.54%	$1.08B	/senea-vs-smpl →
SENEB Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B)	D+	57/100	9.4x	—	16.1%	0.00%	$1.08B	/seneb-vs-smpl →
OFRM Once Upon a Farm PBC	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-1.72%	$670.6M	/ofrm-vs-smpl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-30 • CIK 0001702744

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30), The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.45B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.33B , and +16.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $103.6M, operating cash flow of $178.5M, and free cash flow of $157.9M (-24.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMPL closed FY2025 with $2.45B in total assets against $396.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-08-30	$1.45B	$103.6M	$178.5M	$157.9M	$2.45B	$396.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-08-31	$1.33B	$139.3M	$215.7M	$210.0M	$2.43B	$348.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-08-26	$1.24B	$133.6M	$171.1M	$171.1M	—	—

3. SMPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $10.66 (-1.66% 1D, market cap $925.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, SMPL ranks #39 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMPL compare to BRBR and SENEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), SMPL carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of 36.2%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, BRBR (BellRing Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 46.3%, cap $1.05B) and SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMPL?

Per SMPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001702744), The Simply Good Foods Company generated $1.45B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $103.6M in net income, and $157.9M in free cash flow against $2.45B in total assets and $396.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMPL last traded at $10.66 (-1.66% on volume of 2,881,152 shares), positioning the stock +2.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.41) and -17.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.85). Across its 52-week range of $9.38 to $22.00, SMPL sits at the 10.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($9.53 to $11.79).

SMPL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell SMPL stock right now?

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 36% profit margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 9x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is SMPL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

SMPL's 12-month base price target is $10.9 (range $8.5 to $23.1), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: SMPL RQD Cockpit SMPL 12M Forecast SMPL Earnings & Move SMPL Dividends & DRIP SMPL Insiders & 13F SMPL Whale Options SMPL Profit Sankey SMPL News & Why