MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why SMPL Stock slipped -1.66% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$10.66 -1.66% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.61
The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $925.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.61 (-0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 10.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SMPL SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 2.13 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$10.18+9.9% Next Q
55
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$11.19-7% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$10.41+2.4% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade C$10.66+0.9% Hist 90D α
63
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMPL Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, SMPL faces multiple-compression risk if 8.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.41) or 200D SMA ($12.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.90) toward Bear Floor ($8.50).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SMPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SMPL Stock slipped -1.66% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) slipped -1.66% to $10.66, trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($9.38 – $22). Solid 36% profit margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 9x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($9.38 – $22) with RSI-14 at 59 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.6% around $10.66 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 36.2% gross margin and $157.9M annual free cash flow.
Live SMPL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SMPL Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SMPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $10.89H $11.27L $10.66C $10.66VOL 1.98M
RES: $11.32SUP: $9.07SMA50: $10.41SMA200: $12.85
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SMPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-3.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMPL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMPL)
Consumer Staples Rank #39 of 146
⚔️ BRBR vs SMPL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (SMPL vs. BRBR, SENEA, SENEB, OFRM)
Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) ranks #39 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #76 by equity capitalization ($925.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRBR leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while BRBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 46.3% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. BRBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SMPL at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMPL
ACTIVE
The Simply Good Foods Company | C | 63/100 | 8.9x | 36.2% | 6.4% | -1.66% | $925.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| BRBR BellRing Brands Inc. | B | 75/100 | 4.9x | 33.3% | 46.3% | -2.48% | $1.05B | /brbr-vs-smpl → |
| SENEA Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A) | D | 51/100 | 9.4x | — | 16.1% | +1.54% | $1.08B | /senea-vs-smpl → |
| SENEB Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B) | D+ | 57/100 | 9.4x | — | 16.1% | 0.00% | $1.08B | /seneb-vs-smpl → |
| OFRM Once Upon a Farm PBC | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -1.72% | $670.6M | /ofrm-vs-smpl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-30 • CIK 0001702744In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30), The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.45B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.33B , and +16.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $103.6M, operating cash flow of $178.5M, and free cash flow of $157.9M (-24.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMPL closed FY2025 with $2.45B in total assets against $396.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-08-30 | $1.45B | $103.6M | $178.5M | $157.9M | $2.45B | $396.7M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-08-31 | $1.33B | $139.3M | $215.7M | $210.0M | $2.43B | $348.0M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-08-26 | $1.24B | $133.6M | $171.1M | $171.1M | — | — |
3. SMPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $10.66 (-1.66% 1D, market cap $925.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, SMPL ranks #39 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SMPL compare to BRBR and SENEA in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), SMPL carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of 36.2%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, BRBR (BellRing Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 46.3%, cap $1.05B) and SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMPL?
Per SMPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001702744), The Simply Good Foods Company generated $1.45B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $103.6M in net income, and $157.9M in free cash flow against $2.45B in total assets and $396.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SMPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SMPL last traded at $10.66 (-1.66% on volume of 2,881,152 shares), positioning the stock +2.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.41) and -17.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.85). Across its 52-week range of $9.38 to $22.00, SMPL sits at the 10.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($9.53 to $11.79).
SMPL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SMPL stock moving today?
Why SMPL Stock slipped -1.66% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 36% profit margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 9x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.