MSGE // Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (Class A)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001952073 ↗

Consumer Discretionary • Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation

$81.08 ▲ +2.03 (+2.57%)

MKT CAP: $3.85B • VOL: 322.2K

52W L $43 52W H $90

ROARABLE / RQD

D+ • 58/100

ALTMAN Z

2.07 GREY

PIOTROSKI

4 / 9

MSGE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED AS OF 2026-11-01

ROARABLE D+

RQD CONFIDENCE

58 / 100 +0D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

17 / 20

STRONG

FCF +3.6% vs NI -74.1% • ROIC-WACC +16% • Z 2.07

02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

14 / 20

SOLID

52W RANGE 77% • VS 200D +10% • RSI 63.1

03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

11 / 20

NEUTRAL

NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

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ALERT

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MSGE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.16%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $81.64H $81.90L $79.75C $81.08VOL 340.2K

RES: $83.86SUP: $76.74SMA50: $79.23SMA200: $70.50

MSGE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 30/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (Class A) (MSGE) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 22.2% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), balanced against a 34.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 13.0% operating margin and 22.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 22.2% // GM: 45.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -1.7% paired with 3.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -1.7% // FCF YLD: 3.00%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.07 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.07 // F-SCORE: 4/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 102.7x trailing P/E (95.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 102.7x // EV/EBITDA: 34.8x

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $81.08 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation require continuous execution to defend 4.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.0% // D/E: 8.50x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 95.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E 102.7x

FORWARD P/E 95.5x

EV / EBITDA 34.8x

FCF YIELD 3.00%

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN 13.0%

NET MARGIN 4.0%

ROIC % 22.2%

REV GROWTH YOY -1.7%

DILUTED EPS TTM $0.79

DEBT / EQUITY 8.50x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.2

5Y EQUITY BETA —

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MSGEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $74.19

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MSGE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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