ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MG // Mistras Group Inc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001436126 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Military/Government/Technical
$20.20 ▼ -0.27 (-1.32%)
MKT CAP: $643.4M • VOL: 883.0K
MG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 67% • VS 200D +6.1% • RSI 50.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +1.3% • P/E 35.5x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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MG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.99%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $20.20H $20.35L $20.14C $20.20VOL 456.3K
RES: $23.34SUP: $13.89SMA50: $20.31SMA200: $17.35
$22.59$19.80$17.00$14.21$11.41RES $23.34SUP $13.89$20.202026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 43/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Mistras Group Inc (MG) exhibits 28.2% gross margins and 8.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Military/Government/Technical), balanced against a 12.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 28.2% gross profitability converts into 5.6% operating margin and 8.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.6% // GM: 28.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -0.8% paired with 1.29% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -0.8% // FCF YLD: 1.29%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.81 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.81 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 38.2x trailing P/E (35.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 38.2x // EV/EBITDA: 12.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $20.20 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Military/Government/Technical require continuous execution to defend 2.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.3% // D/E: 0.70x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 35.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 38.2x
FORWARD P/E 35.5x
EV / EBITDA 12.7x
FCF YIELD 1.29%
GROSS MARGIN 28.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 5.6%
NET MARGIN 2.3%
ROIC % 8.6%
REV GROWTH YOY -0.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.53
DEBT / EQUITY 0.70x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 41.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $18.48
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>