Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MG

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Mistras Group Inc (MG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$20.20 -1.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.11

Mistras Group Inc (MG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $643.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.11 (-0.43%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 1.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MG SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 86% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.81 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 5.6% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$20.77+3.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$21.46+0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$21.53-6.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$20.20-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MG faces multiple-compression risk if 38.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.31) or 200D SMA ($17.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.02) toward Bear Floor ($15.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

41.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.81>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE86% OF RANGE

L: $9$20.20H: $22

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

8.6% ROIC with 28.2% gross margin and 1.29% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 2.81 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (60)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MG

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MG)

✓Walkthrough of MG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.99%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $20.20H $20.35L $20.14C $20.20VOL 456.3K

RES: $23.34SUP: $13.89SMA50: $20.31SMA200: $17.35

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MG Butterfly Map → + Track MG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

29.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #512 of 1011 ⚔️ WLDN vs MG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MG vs. WLDN, JLHL, VSEC, STN)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mistras Group Inc (MG) ranks #512 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #563 by equity capitalization ($643.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WLDN leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while WLDN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and 37.5% gross margin. WLDN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with MG at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MG ACTIVE Mistras Group Inc	D+	56/100	38.2x	28.2%	8.6%	-1.32%	$643.4M	Benchmark Subject
WLDN Willdan Group Inc.	B-	70/100	22.4x	37.5%	12.2%	+1.60%	$1.18B	/wldn-vs-mg →
JLHL Julong Holding Limited (Class A)	D-	40/100	32.7x	16.1%	—	-4.25%	$120.1M	/jlhl-vs-mg →
VSEC VSE Corporation	D+	53/100	—	—	4.3%	+6.10%	$4.35B	/vsec-vs-mg →
STN Stantec Inc	D+	57/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+0.60%	$8.13B	/stn-vs-mg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001436126

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mistras Group Inc (MG) reported GAAP revenue of $724.0M (-0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $729.6M , and +2.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $16.8M, operating cash flow of $33.0M, and free cash flow of $8.3M (-74.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MG closed FY2025 with $578.8M in total assets against $165.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.81, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$724.0M	$16.8M	$33.0M	$8.3M	$578.8M	$165.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$729.6M	$19.0M	$50.1M	$32.2M	$523.0M	$158.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$705.5M	-$17.5M	$26.7M	$26.7M	—	—

3. MG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Mistras Group Inc (NYSE: MG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $20.20 (-1.32% 1D, market cap $643.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MG ranks #512 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MG compare to WLDN and JLHL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Military/Government/Technical), MG carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.2x, gross margin of 28.2%, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, WLDN (Willdan Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.18B) and JLHL (Julong Holding Limited (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC —, cap $120.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLDN leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while WLDN leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MG?

Per MG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436126), Mistras Group Inc generated $724.0M in revenue (-0.8% YoY), $16.8M in net income, and $8.3M in free cash flow against $578.8M in total assets and $165.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MG last traded at $20.20 (-1.32% on volume of 882,957 shares), positioning the stock -0.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.31) and +16.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.35). Across its 52-week range of $9.45 to $21.92, MG sits at the 86.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($19.43 to $20.97).

MG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MG stock right now?

Mistras Group Inc (MG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 56/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 38x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MG's 12-month base price target is $20.02 (range $15.62 to $23.62), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MG RQD Cockpit MG 12M Forecast MG Earnings & Move MG Dividends & DRIP MG Insiders & 13F MG Whale Options MG Profit Sankey MG News & Why