Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MG / earnings

WLDN (70) JLHL (40) VSEC (53) STN (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Mistras Group Inc (MG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±3.8% Move

$20.20 -1.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.11

Mistras Group Inc (MG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $643.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Mistras Group Inc (NYSE: MG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $20.20 (-1.32% 1D, market cap $643.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MG ranks #512 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MG compare to WLDN and JLHL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Military/Government/Technical), MG carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.2x, gross margin of 28.2%, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, WLDN (Willdan Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.18B) and JLHL (Julong Holding Limited (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC —, cap $120.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLDN leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while WLDN leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MG?

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Per MG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436126), Mistras Group Inc generated $724.0M in revenue (-0.8% YoY), $16.8M in net income, and $8.3M in free cash flow against $578.8M in total assets and $165.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.11 (-0.43%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 1.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MG SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 86% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.81 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 5.6% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$20.77+3.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$21.46+0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$21.53-6.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$20.20-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MG faces multiple-compression risk if 38.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.31) or 200D SMA ($17.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.02) toward Bear Floor ($15.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±3.8% Swing Band

±$0.77 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MG Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 56/100

Trailing EPS: $0.53 • YoY Revenue Growth: -0.8%

Model Bullish Setup (56/100)Model Risk Weight (44/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$724.0M	$16.8M	$8.3M	28.2%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$729.6M	$19.0M	$32.2M	26.3%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$705.5M	-$17.5M	$26.7M	28.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MG)

✓Walkthrough of MG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.99%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $20.20H $20.35L $20.14C $20.20VOL 456.3K

RES: $23.34SUP: $13.89SMA50: $20.31SMA200: $17.35

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MG Butterfly Map → + Track MG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

29.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #512 of 1011 ⚔️ WLDN vs MG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MG vs. WLDN, JLHL, VSEC, STN)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mistras Group Inc (MG) ranks #512 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #563 by equity capitalization ($643.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WLDN leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while WLDN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and 37.5% gross margin. WLDN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with MG at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MG ACTIVE Mistras Group Inc	D+	56/100	38.2x	28.2%	8.6%	-1.32%	$643.4M	Benchmark Subject
WLDN Willdan Group Inc.	B-	70/100	22.4x	37.5%	12.2%	+1.60%	$1.18B	/wldn-vs-mg →
JLHL Julong Holding Limited (Class A)	D-	40/100	32.7x	16.1%	—	-4.25%	$120.1M	/jlhl-vs-mg →
VSEC VSE Corporation	D+	53/100	—	—	4.3%	+6.10%	$4.35B	/vsec-vs-mg →
STN Stantec Inc	D+	57/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+0.60%	$8.13B	/stn-vs-mg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001436126

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mistras Group Inc (MG) reported GAAP revenue of $724.0M (-0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $729.6M , and +2.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $16.8M, operating cash flow of $33.0M, and free cash flow of $8.3M (-74.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MG closed FY2025 with $578.8M in total assets against $165.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.81, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$724.0M	$16.8M	$33.0M	$8.3M	$578.8M	$165.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$729.6M	$19.0M	$50.1M	$32.2M	$523.0M	$158.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$705.5M	-$17.5M	$26.7M	$26.7M	—	—

3. MG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MG compare to WLDN and JLHL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MG?

Where is MG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MG last traded at $20.20 (-1.32% on volume of 882,957 shares), positioning the stock -0.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.31) and +16.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.35). Across its 52-week range of $9.45 to $21.92, MG sits at the 86.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($19.43 to $20.97).

MG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MG's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Mistras Group Inc (MG)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MG stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±3.8% event move for MG, spanning a range between $19.43 and $20.97.

Direct Sub-Reports: MG RQD Cockpit MG 12M Forecast MG Earnings & Move MG Dividends & DRIP MG Insiders & 13F MG Whale Options MG Profit Sankey MG News & Why