MARKET WIREFintel • 4d ago
Mistras Group, Inc. Announces Expiration of 40-calendar-day Go-Shop PeriodWhy MG Stock slipped -1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$20.20 -1.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.11
Mistras Group Inc (MG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $643.4M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is MG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Mistras Group Inc (NYSE: MG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $20.20 (-1.32% 1D, market cap $643.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MG ranks #505 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does MG compare to WLDN and JLHL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Military/Government/Technical), MG carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.2x, gross margin of 28.2%, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, WLDN (Willdan Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.18B) and JLHL (Julong Holding Limited (Class A)) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC —, cap $120.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLDN leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while WLDN leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MG?
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Per MG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436126), Mistras Group Inc generated $724.0M in revenue (-0.8% YoY), $16.8M in net income, and $8.3M in free cash flow against $578.8M in total assets and $165.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.11 (-0.43%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 1.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MG SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 86% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 2.81 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 5.6% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$20.66+3.8% Next Q
61
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$21.44-0.9% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$21.24-4.9% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade D+$20.20-0.9% Hist 90D α
53
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MG Turnaround Squeeze
While MG currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.33) and Max Pain ($21.21) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.30.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MG Stock slipped -1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Mistras Group Inc (MG) slipped -1.32% to $20.20, trading at 86% of its 52-week range ($9.45 – $21.92). Stretched risk/reward at 38x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 86% of its 52-week range ($9.45 – $21.92) with RSI-14 at 42.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.8% around $20.20 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 28.2% gross margin and $8.3M annual free cash flow.
Live MG Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
MISTRAS Group, Inc. Announces Expiration of “Go-Shop” PeriodPreviously Announced Transaction with H.I.G. Capital Remains Expected to Close in Late 2026 or Early 2027PRINCETON JUNCTION, N.J., Oct. 28, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MISTRAS Group, Inc. (NYSE: MG) (“MISTRAS” or the “Compa
RISK WATCHYahoo • 13d ago
Natalia Shuman Named 2026 Executive Women of New Jersey Salute to the Policy Makers HonoreePRINCETON, N.J., Oct. 19, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Natalia Shuman, President and Chief Executive Officer at MISTRAS Group, Inc. has been named one of 48 women leaders who will be honored by Executive Women of New Jersey
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MG)
- ✓Walkthrough of MG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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MG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.08%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-02O $20.47H $20.47L $20.20C $20.20VOL 883.0K
RES: $23.40SUP: $20.30SMA50: $20.33SMA200: $17.38
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
29.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MG)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #505 of 1011
⚔️ WLDN vs MG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MG vs. WLDN, JLHL, VSEC, STN)
Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mistras Group Inc (MG) ranks #505 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #563 by equity capitalization ($643.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WLDN leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while WLDN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and 37.5% gross margin. WLDN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MG at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MG
ACTIVE
Mistras Group Inc | D+ | 53/100 | 38.2x | 28.2% | 8.6% | -1.32% | $643.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| WLDN Willdan Group Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 22.4x | 37.5% | 12.2% | +1.60% | $1.18B | /wldn-vs-mg → |
| JLHL Julong Holding Limited (Class A) | D | 44/100 | 32.7x | 16.1% | — | -4.25% | $120.1M | /jlhl-vs-mg → |
| VSEC VSE Corporation | D+ | 53/100 | — | — | 4.3% | +6.10% | $4.35B | /vsec-vs-mg → |
| STN Stantec Inc | D+ | 57/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +0.60% | $8.13B | /stn-vs-mg → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001436126In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mistras Group Inc (MG) reported GAAP revenue of $724.0M (-0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $729.6M , and +2.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $16.8M, operating cash flow of $33.0M, and free cash flow of $8.3M (-74.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MG closed FY2025 with $578.8M in total assets against $165.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.81, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $724.0M | $16.8M | $33.0M | $8.3M | $578.8M | $165.1M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $729.6M | $19.0M | $50.1M | $32.2M | $523.0M | $158.1M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $705.5M | -$17.5M | $26.7M | $26.7M | — | — |
3. MG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Mistras Group Inc (NYSE: MG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $20.20 (-1.32% 1D, market cap $643.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MG ranks #505 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MG compare to WLDN and JLHL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Military/Government/Technical), MG carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.2x, gross margin of 28.2%, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, WLDN (Willdan Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.18B) and JLHL (Julong Holding Limited (Class A)) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC —, cap $120.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLDN leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while WLDN leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MG?
Per MG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436126), Mistras Group Inc generated $724.0M in revenue (-0.8% YoY), $16.8M in net income, and $8.3M in free cash flow against $578.8M in total assets and $165.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MG last traded at $20.20 (-1.32% on volume of 882,957 shares), positioning the stock -0.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.33) and +16.23% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.38). Across its 52-week range of $9.45 to $21.92, MG sits at the 86.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($19.43 to $20.97).
MG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MG stock moving today?
Why MG Stock slipped -1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 38x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.