ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

GPRE // Green Plains Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001309402 ↗
Materials • Major Chemicals
$13.62 ▼ -0.10 (-0.73%)
MKT CAP: $954.7M • VOL: 959.1K
GPRE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
48 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF +158.9% vs NI -47% • ROIC-WACC -14.2% • Z 0.49
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +7.7% • P/E N/A • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did GPRE's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever GPRE is Upgraded or Downgraded.

GPRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.63%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $13.81H $14.36L $13.62C $13.62VOL 1.05M
RES: $15.37SUP: $13.36SMA50: $14.77SMA200: $15.25
$20.22$17.85$15.49$13.12$10.76RES $15.37SUP $13.36$13.622026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
GPRE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 43/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) exhibits 72.5% gross margins and -5.6% return on invested capital within Materials (Major Chemicals), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 72.5% gross profitability converts into -35.6% operating margin and -5.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -5.6% // GM: 72.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.0% paired with 7.72% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.0% // FCF YLD: 7.72%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.49 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.49 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $13.62 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Chemicals require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.47x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 7.72%
GROSS MARGIN 72.5%
OPERATING MARGIN -35.6%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -5.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +16.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.47x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.08%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GPREPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $12.46
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for GPRE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>