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Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$13.62 -0.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.58

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $954.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GPRE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GPRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $13.62 (-0.73% 1D, market cap $954.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, GPRE ranks #185 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GPRE compare to FTK and KRO in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), GPRE carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 72.5%, and ROIC of -5.6%. By comparison, FTK (Flotek Industries Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 30.5x, ROIC 17.1%, cap $930.1M) and KRO (Kronos Worldwide Inc) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.3%, cap $857.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FTK leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while FTK leads on capital efficiency (17.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPRE?

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Per GPRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001309402), Green Plains Inc. generated $189.0M in revenue (+16.0% YoY), -$121.3M in net income, and $73.7M in free cash flow against $1.58B in total assets and $362.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.58 (-0.32%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 39% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPRE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GPRE SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.49 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$14.60-3.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$14.15-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$14.04-3% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$13.62-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GPRE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GPRE currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.72) and Max Pain ($14.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.63.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPRE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GPRE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

40.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.49>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE42% OF RANGE

L: $9$13.62H: $20

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on GPRE

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

-5.6% ROIC with 72.5% gross margin and 7.72% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 0.49 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GPRE

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GPRE)

✓Walkthrough of GPRE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GPRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.63%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $13.72H $13.72L $13.62C $13.62VOL 959.1K

RES: $15.34SUP: $13.35SMA50: $14.72SMA200: $15.26

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GPRE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GPRE Butterfly Map → + Track GPRE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPRE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPRE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPRE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPRE)

Materials Rank #185 of 270 ⚔️ FTK vs GPRE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (GPRE vs. FTK, KRO, ECVT, LXU)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) ranks #185 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #138 by equity capitalization ($954.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FTK leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while FTK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.1% ROIC and 25.2% gross margin. FTK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with GPRE at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GPRE ACTIVE Green Plains Inc.	D-	43/100	—	72.5%	-5.6%	-0.73%	$954.7M	Benchmark Subject
FTK Flotek Industries Inc.	C-	61/100	30.5x	25.2%	17.1%	-1.53%	$930.1M	/ftk-vs-gpre →
KRO Kronos Worldwide Inc	D-	36/100	—	11.5%	-2.3%	-3.25%	$857.5M	/kro-vs-gpre →
ECVT Ecovyst Inc.	D	48/100	—	21.8%	6.4%	+0.49%	$1.12B	/ecvt-vs-gpre →
LXU LSB Industries Inc.	D+	58/100	32.5x	17.0%	4.8%	+8.07%	$800.6M	/lxu-vs-gpre →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001309402

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) reported GAAP revenue of $189.0M (+16.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $163.0M , and +38.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$121.3M, operating cash flow of $110.9M, and free cash flow of $73.7M (+158.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPRE closed FY2025 with $1.58B in total assets against $362.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.49, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$189.0M	-$121.3M	$110.9M	$73.7M	$1.58B	$362.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$163.0M	-$82.5M	-$30.0M	-$125.0M	$1.78B	$432.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$136.3M	-$93.4M	$56.3M	$56.3M	—	—

3. GPRE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GPRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GPRE compare to FTK and KRO in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPRE?

Where is GPRE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GPRE last traded at $13.62 (-0.73% on volume of 959,097 shares), positioning the stock -7.47% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.72) and -10.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.26). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $19.65, GPRE sits at the 41.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($12.48 to $14.76).

GPRE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GPRE stock right now?

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 43/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is GPRE's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GPRE's 12-month base price target is $12.7 (range $9.91 to $20.63), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GPRE RQD Cockpit GPRE 12M Forecast GPRE Earnings & Move GPRE Dividends & DRIP GPRE Insiders & 13F GPRE Whale Options GPRE Profit Sankey GPRE News & Why