MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why GPRE Stock slipped -0.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$13.62 -0.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.58
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $954.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.58 (-0.32%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 39% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPRE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GPRE SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 42% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$14.34+0.9% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$14.47-3.4% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$13.98-2.6% Next Q
51
CurrentGrade D$13.62-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GPRE Turnaround Squeeze
While GPRE currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.77) and Max Pain ($14.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.63.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPRE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GPRE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GPRE Stock slipped -0.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) slipped -0.73% to $13.62, trading at 42% of its 52-week range ($9.29 – $19.65). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 42% of its 52-week range ($9.29 – $19.65) with RSI-14 at 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.6% around $13.62 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 72.5% gross margin and $73.7M annual free cash flow.
Live GPRE Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GPRE)
- ✓Walkthrough of GPRE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GPRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.63%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $13.81H $14.36L $13.62C $13.62VOL 1.05M
RES: $15.37SUP: $13.36SMA50: $14.77SMA200: $15.25
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GPRE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +16.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPRE today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPRE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPRE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPRE)
Materials Rank #180 of 270
⚔️ FTK vs GPRE Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (GPRE vs. FTK, KRO, ECVT, LXU)
Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) ranks #180 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #138 by equity capitalization ($954.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FTK leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while FTK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.1% ROIC and 25.2% gross margin. LXU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with GPRE at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPRE
ACTIVE
Green Plains Inc. | D | 48/100 | — | 72.5% | -5.6% | -0.73% | $954.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| FTK Flotek Industries Inc. | D+ | 56/100 | 30.5x | 25.2% | 17.1% | -1.53% | $930.1M | /ftk-vs-gpre → |
| KRO Kronos Worldwide Inc | E | 34/100 | — | 11.5% | -2.3% | -3.25% | $857.5M | /kro-vs-gpre → |
| ECVT Ecovyst Inc. | C- | 61/100 | — | 21.8% | 6.4% | +0.49% | $1.12B | /ecvt-vs-gpre → |
| LXU LSB Industries Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 32.5x | 17.0% | 4.8% | +8.07% | $800.6M | /lxu-vs-gpre → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001309402In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) reported GAAP revenue of $189.0M (+16.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $163.0M , and +38.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$121.3M, operating cash flow of $110.9M, and free cash flow of $73.7M (+158.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPRE closed FY2025 with $1.58B in total assets against $362.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.49, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $189.0M | -$121.3M | $110.9M | $73.7M | $1.58B | $362.0M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $163.0M | -$82.5M | -$30.0M | -$125.0M | $1.78B | $432.5M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $136.3M | -$93.4M | $56.3M | $56.3M | — | — |
3. GPRE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GPRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $13.62 (-0.73% 1D, market cap $954.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, GPRE ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GPRE compare to FTK and KRO in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), GPRE carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 72.5%, and ROIC of -5.6%. By comparison, FTK (Flotek Industries Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 30.5x, ROIC 17.1%, cap $930.1M) and KRO (Kronos Worldwide Inc) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.3%, cap $857.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FTK leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while FTK leads on capital efficiency (17.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPRE?
Per GPRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001309402), Green Plains Inc. generated $189.0M in revenue (+16.0% YoY), -$121.3M in net income, and $73.7M in free cash flow against $1.58B in total assets and $362.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GPRE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GPRE last traded at $13.62 (-0.73% on volume of 959,097 shares), positioning the stock -7.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.77) and -10.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.25). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $19.65, GPRE sits at the 41.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($12.45 to $14.79).
GPRE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GPRE stock moving today?
Why GPRE Stock slipped -0.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.