ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

GPK // Graphic Packaging Holding Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001408075 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Containers/Packaging
$8.81 ▲ +0.27 (+3.16%)
MKT CAP: $2.61B • VOL: 7.48M
GPK // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
69 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +0.1% vs NI -32.5% • ROIC-WACC +0.7% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 79% • VS 200D +10.7% • RSI 65.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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GPK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $8.92H $9.02L $8.81C $8.81VOL 9.91M
RES: $13.05SUP: $7.87SMA50: $9.48SMA200: $10.68
$16.51$14.24$11.98$9.71$7.45RES $13.05SUP $7.87$8.812026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
GPK // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 43/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) exhibits 18.2% gross margins and 7.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Containers/Packaging), balanced against a 9.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 18.2% gross profitability converts into 9.4% operating margin and 7.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.8% // GM: 18.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -2.2% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -2.2% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 5.9x trailing P/E (5.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 5.9x // EV/EBITDA: 9.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $8.81 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Containers/Packaging require continuous execution to defend 5.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.2% // D/E: 1.51x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 5.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 5.9x
FORWARD P/E 5.5x
EV / EBITDA 9.2x
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 18.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 9.4%
NET MARGIN 5.2%
ROIC % 7.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -2.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.50
DEBT / EQUITY 1.51x
DIVIDEND YIELD 4.91%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GPKPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $8.06
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>