Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GPK

SON (52) REYN (70) OI (37) WMS (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.81 +3.16% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.84

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.61B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GPK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-02, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $8.81 (+3.16% 1D, market cap $2.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GPK ranks #500 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GPK compare to SON and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), GPK carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of 18.2%, and ROIC of 7.8%. By comparison, SON (Sonoco Products Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $4.93B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPK?

▼

Per GPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408075), Graphic Packaging Holding Company generated $8.58B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $444.0M in net income, and $841.0M in free cash flow against $11.78B in total assets and $5.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.84 (+0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 9.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GPK SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.8% FCF Margin ($841.0M FCF) & 18.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (48.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$8.24+2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$8.42+4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$8.76+0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$8.81-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GPK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GPK currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.42) and Max Pain ($9.25) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.08.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GPK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

48.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE7% OF RANGE

L: $8$8.81H: $17

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (18% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on GPK

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

7.8% ROIC with 18.2% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GPK

✓Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GPK)

✓Walkthrough of GPK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GPK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.85%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $8.54H $8.81L $8.54C $8.81VOL 7.48M

RES: $13.07SUP: $7.85SMA50: $9.42SMA200: $10.64

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GPK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GPK Butterfly Map → + Track GPK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #500 of 1011 ⚔️ SON vs GPK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GPK vs. SON, REYN, OI, WMS)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) ranks #500 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #385 by equity capitalization ($2.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SON leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while WMS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.3% ROIC and 38.3% gross margin. WMS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with GPK at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GPK ACTIVE Graphic Packaging Holding Company	D+	53/100	5.9x	18.2%	7.8%	+3.16%	$2.61B	Benchmark Subject
SON Sonoco Products Company	D+	52/100	4.9x	20.9%	11.4%	+2.34%	$4.93B	/son-vs-gpk →
REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.	B-	70/100	16.5x	24.6%	13.4%	+2.39%	$4.97B	/reyn-vs-gpk →
OI O-I Glass Inc.	D-	37/100	—	17.3%	-10.0%	-6.04%	$814.4M	/oi-vs-gpk →
WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.	B	72/100	24.0x	38.3%	22.3%	+4.93%	$10.29B	/wms-vs-gpk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001408075

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) reported GAAP revenue of $8.58B (-2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.78B , and -8.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $444.0M, operating cash flow of $841.0M, and free cash flow of $841.0M (+0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPK closed FY2025 with $11.78B in total assets against $5.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$8.58B	$444.0M	$841.0M	$841.0M	$11.78B	$5.02B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$8.78B	$658.0M	$840.0M	$840.0M	$11.14B	$5.14B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$9.38B	$723.0M	$1.14B	$1.14B	—	—

3. GPK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GPK compare to SON and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPK?

Where is GPK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GPK last traded at $8.81 (+3.16% on volume of 7,481,889 shares), positioning the stock -6.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.42) and -17.20% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.64). Across its 52-week range of $8.15 to $17.22, GPK sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($8.11 to $9.51).

GPK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GPK stock right now?

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 53/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is GPK's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GPK's 12-month base price target is $8.61 (range $6.72 to $18.08), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GPK RQD Cockpit GPK 12M Forecast GPK Earnings & Move GPK Dividends & DRIP GPK Insiders & 13F GPK Whale Options GPK Profit Sankey GPK News & Why