Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GPK

SON (52) REYN (75) OI (42) WMS (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.81 +3.16% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.84

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.61B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.84 (+0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 9.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GPK SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.8% FCF Margin ($841.0M FCF) & 18.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 7 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$8.35+2.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$8.57+2.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$8.77+0.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$8.81+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GPK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, GPK faces multiple-compression risk if 5.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.48) or 200D SMA ($10.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.25) toward Bear Floor ($7.21).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GPK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

51.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE7% OF RANGE

L: $8$8.81H: $17

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (18% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on GPK

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (75)

7.8% ROIC with 18.2% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (68)

28/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GPK

✓Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GPK Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GPK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $8.92H $9.02L $8.81C $8.81VOL 9.91M

RES: $13.05SUP: $7.87SMA50: $9.48SMA200: $10.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GPK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GPK Butterfly Map → + Track GPK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #201 of 1011 ⚔️ SON vs GPK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GPK vs. SON, REYN, OI, WMS)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) ranks #201 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #385 by equity capitalization ($2.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SON leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while WMS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.3% ROIC and 38.3% gross margin. REYN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with GPK at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GPK ACTIVE Graphic Packaging Holding Company	C+	69/100	5.9x	18.2%	7.8%	+3.16%	$2.61B	Benchmark Subject
SON Sonoco Products Company	D+	52/100	4.9x	20.9%	11.4%	+2.34%	$4.93B	/son-vs-gpk →
REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.	B	75/100	16.5x	24.6%	13.4%	+2.39%	$4.97B	/reyn-vs-gpk →
OI O-I Glass Inc.	D-	42/100	—	17.3%	-10.0%	-6.04%	$814.4M	/oi-vs-gpk →
WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.	B	72/100	24.0x	38.3%	22.3%	+4.93%	$10.29B	/wms-vs-gpk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001408075

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) reported GAAP revenue of $8.58B (-2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.78B , and -8.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $444.0M, operating cash flow of $841.0M, and free cash flow of $841.0M (+0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPK closed FY2025 with $11.78B in total assets against $5.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$8.58B	$444.0M	$841.0M	$841.0M	$11.78B	$5.02B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$8.78B	$658.0M	$840.0M	$840.0M	$11.14B	$5.14B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$9.38B	$723.0M	$1.14B	$1.14B	—	—

3. GPK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $8.81 (+3.16% 1D, market cap $2.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GPK ranks #201 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GPK compare to SON and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), GPK carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of 18.2%, and ROIC of 7.8%. By comparison, SON (Sonoco Products Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $4.93B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPK?

Per GPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408075), Graphic Packaging Holding Company generated $8.58B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $444.0M in net income, and $841.0M in free cash flow against $11.78B in total assets and $5.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GPK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GPK last traded at $8.81 (+3.16% on volume of 7,481,889 shares), positioning the stock -7.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.48) and -17.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.68). Across its 52-week range of $8.15 to $17.22, GPK sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($8.11 to $9.51).

GPK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GPK stock right now?

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 18% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is GPK's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GPK's 12-month base price target is $9.25 (range $7.21 to $18.08), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GPK RQD Cockpit GPK 12M Forecast GPK Earnings & Move GPK Dividends & DRIP GPK Insiders & 13F GPK Whale Options GPK Profit Sankey GPK News & Why