MARKET WIREYahoo • 1d ago
What Just Happened To Smurfit WestRock Stock?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Why GPK Stock surged +3.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$8.81 +3.16% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.84
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $2.61B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.84 (+0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 9.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GPK SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.8% FCF Margin ($841.0M FCF) & 18.2% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)
Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 7 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$8.35+2.6% Next Q
61
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$8.57+2.3% Next Q
64
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$8.77+0.5% Next Q
66
CurrentGrade C+$8.81+2% Hist 90D α
69
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GPK Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, GPK faces multiple-compression risk if 5.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.48) or 200D SMA ($10.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.25) toward Bear Floor ($7.21).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GPK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GPK Stock surged +3.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) surged +3.16% to $8.81, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($8.15 – $17.22). Solid 18% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($8.15 – $17.22) with RSI-14 at 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8% around $8.81 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 18.2% gross margin and $841.0M annual free cash flow.
Live GPK Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHYahoo • 3d ago
Why Is Smurfit WestRock Stock Falling?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
RISK WATCHYahoo • 3d ago
1 volatile stock worth your attention and 2 we ignoreVolatility cuts both ways - while it creates opportunities, it also increases risk, making sharp declines just as likely as big gains. This unpredictability can shake out even the most experienced investors.
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Amcor (AMCR) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's ReleaseAmcor (AMCR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Constellium (CSTM) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue EstimatesConstellium (CSTM) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +13.51% and +4.23%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
Clearwater weighing options after failures at mill acquired from Graphic PackagingThe company believes some of the information it received about the mill during the acquisition was “either incomplete or inaccurate,” CEO Arsen Kitch said during an earnings call Monday.
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Analysts Estimate Graphic Packaging (GPK) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out forGraphic Packaging (GPK) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 13d ago
Wells Fargo Maintains Underweight on Graphic Packaging Holding, Lowers Price Target to $9Wells Fargo analyst Richard Carlson maintains Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) with a Underweight and lowers the price target from $10 to $9.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GPK Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
GPK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $8.92H $9.02L $8.81C $8.81VOL 9.91M
RES: $13.05SUP: $7.87SMA50: $9.48SMA200: $10.68
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GPK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPK today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPK)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #201 of 1011
⚔️ SON vs GPK Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GPK vs. SON, REYN, OI, WMS)
Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) ranks #201 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #385 by equity capitalization ($2.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SON leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while WMS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.3% ROIC and 38.3% gross margin. REYN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with GPK at 69/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK
ACTIVE
Graphic Packaging Holding Company | C+ | 69/100 | 5.9x | 18.2% | 7.8% | +3.16% | $2.61B | Benchmark Subject |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | D+ | 52/100 | 4.9x | 20.9% | 11.4% | +2.34% | $4.93B | /son-vs-gpk → |
| REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | B | 75/100 | 16.5x | 24.6% | 13.4% | +2.39% | $4.97B | /reyn-vs-gpk → |
| OI O-I Glass Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | 17.3% | -10.0% | -6.04% | $814.4M | /oi-vs-gpk → |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. | B | 72/100 | 24.0x | 38.3% | 22.3% | +4.93% | $10.29B | /wms-vs-gpk → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001408075In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) reported GAAP revenue of $8.58B (-2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.78B , and -8.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $444.0M, operating cash flow of $841.0M, and free cash flow of $841.0M (+0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPK closed FY2025 with $11.78B in total assets against $5.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $8.58B | $444.0M | $841.0M | $841.0M | $11.78B | $5.02B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $8.78B | $658.0M | $840.0M | $840.0M | $11.14B | $5.14B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $9.38B | $723.0M | $1.14B | $1.14B | — | — |
3. GPK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $8.81 (+3.16% 1D, market cap $2.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GPK ranks #201 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GPK compare to SON and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), GPK carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of 18.2%, and ROIC of 7.8%. By comparison, SON (Sonoco Products Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $4.93B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPK?
Per GPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408075), Graphic Packaging Holding Company generated $8.58B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $444.0M in net income, and $841.0M in free cash flow against $11.78B in total assets and $5.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GPK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GPK last traded at $8.81 (+3.16% on volume of 7,481,889 shares), positioning the stock -7.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.48) and -17.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.68). Across its 52-week range of $8.15 to $17.22, GPK sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($8.11 to $9.51).
GPK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GPK stock moving today?
Why GPK Stock surged +3.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 18% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.