ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ESTA // Establishment Labs Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001688757 ↗
Health Care • Industrial Specialties
$68.41 ▼ -0.56 (-0.81%)
MKT CAP: $2.04B • VOL: 1.04M
ESTA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 34/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
34 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF +11.9% vs NI +39.6% • ROIC-WACC -22% • Z 2.52
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 66% • VS 200D +3.5% • RSI 51.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
7 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

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ESTA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.32%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $67.38H $68.41L $60.25C $68.41VOL 1.03M
RES: $61.19SUP: $50.38SMA50: $67.06SMA200: $72.38
$100.6$88.23$75.89$63.56$51.22RES $61.19SUP $50.38$68.412026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ESTA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 41/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. (ESTA) exhibits 69.3% gross margins and -15.8% return on invested capital within Health Care (Industrial Specialties), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 69.3% gross profitability converts into -18.5% operating margin and -15.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -15.8% // GM: 69.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +27.1% paired with -2.79% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +27.1% // FCF YLD: -2.79%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.52 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.52 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $68.41 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Specialties require continuous execution to defend -24.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -24.2% // D/E: 8.50x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -2.79%
GROSS MARGIN 69.3%
OPERATING MARGIN -18.5%
NET MARGIN -24.2%
ROIC % -15.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +27.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 8.50x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ESTAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $62.60
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>