ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CGBD // Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001544206 ↗
Financials • Finance: Consumer Services
$10.81 ▲ +0.24 (+2.27%)
MKT CAP: $743.8M • VOL: 344.5K
CGBD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 50/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
50 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 64% • VS 200D +3.1% • RSI 59.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +0% • P/E 9.9x • F-SCORE 1/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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CGBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.85%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $10.79H $10.81L $10.65C $10.81VOL 461.3K
RES: $12.78SUP: $10.01SMA50: $11.00SMA200: $11.15
$12.65$11.91$11.18$10.45$9.71RES $12.78SUP $10.01$10.812026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
CGBD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 6.0% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 10.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 6.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 1/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.6x trailing P/E (9.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.6x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $10.81 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 10.6x
FORWARD P/E 9.9x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 6.0%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.02
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CGBDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $9.89
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>