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Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.81 +2.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.83

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $743.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CGBD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CGBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (NASDAQ: CGBD) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $10.81 (+2.27% 1D, market cap $743.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CGBD ranks #950 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CGBD compare to BUR and GDOT in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CGBD carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, BUR (Burford Capital Limited) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $763.7M) and GDOT (Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 30.6%, cap $706.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while GDOT leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGBD?

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Per CGBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001544206), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $70.0M in net income, and -$204.6M in free cash flow against $2.79B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.83 (+0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CGBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CGBD SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$10.53-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$10.25+0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$10.26+5.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$10.81-7.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CGBD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CGBD currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.99) and Max Pain ($11.35) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.94.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CGBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CGBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

55.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

1 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE26% OF RANGE

L: $10$10.81H: $13

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 3 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on CGBD

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (15)

6.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CGBD

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CGBD)

✓Walkthrough of CGBD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CGBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.22%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $10.57H $10.81L $10.57C $10.81VOL 344.5K

RES: $12.80SUP: $10.01SMA50: $10.99SMA200: $11.14

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CGBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CGBD Butterfly Map → + Track CGBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CGBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CGBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CGBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CGBD)

Financials Rank #950 of 1096 ⚔️ BUR vs CGBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CGBD vs. BUR, GDOT, LU, BTGO)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) ranks #950 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #614 by equity capitalization ($743.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGBD leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while GDOT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.6% ROIC and — gross margin. GDOT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with CGBD at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CGBD ACTIVE Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.	D-	38/100	10.6x	—	6.0%	+2.27%	$743.8M	Benchmark Subject
BUR Burford Capital Limited	E	33/100	12.2x	—	9.7%	+3.25%	$763.7M	/bur-vs-cgbd →
GDOT Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	30.6%	+1.06%	$706.0M	/gdot-vs-cgbd →
LU Lufax Holding Ltd (each representing twenty (20) )	D	44/100	—	—	—	-2.94%	$687.3M	/lu-vs-cgbd →
BTGO BitGo Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	41/100	—	—	—	-0.17%	$680.6M	/btgo-vs-cgbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001544206

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $70.0M, operating cash flow of -$204.6M, and free cash flow of -$204.6M (-296.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CGBD closed FY2025 with $2.79B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$70.0M	-$204.6M	-$204.6M	$2.79B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$89.0M	$104.3M	$104.3M	$1.93B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$92.3M	$230.6M	$230.6M	—	—

3. CGBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CGBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CGBD compare to BUR and GDOT in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGBD?

Where is CGBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CGBD last traded at $10.81 (+2.27% on volume of 344,533 shares), positioning the stock -1.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.99) and -2.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.14). Across its 52-week range of $9.94 to $13.28, CGBD sits at the 26.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($10.27 to $11.35).

CGBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell CGBD stock right now?

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 38/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is CGBD's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CGBD's 12-month base price target is $9.84 (range $7.68 to $13.94), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: CGBD RQD Cockpit CGBD 12M Forecast CGBD Earnings & Move CGBD Dividends & DRIP CGBD Insiders & 13F CGBD Whale Options CGBD Profit Sankey CGBD News & Why